{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73b144a1-0fe9-4251-babd-8b875227e935", "symbol": "002595", "name": "Himile Mechanical Science and Technology (Shandong) Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.512, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.906, "architecture_energy": 24.712, "architecture_maturity": 57.935, "architecture_confidence": 70.958, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.8, "rotation_up": 27.2, "upward_expansion": 15.93, "deceleration": 46.03, "rotation_down": 29.07, "downward_expansion": 63.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.422667, 49.405818, 51.322857, 53.30776 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 52.400002, "trend_reference": 55.470517, "distance_from_trend": -0.055354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.851958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.461566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.080507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07295, "excess_performance": -0.08035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011728, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.461566, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289118, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008629, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.86712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18385626, "relative_activity": 0.756296, "balance": 1.86712, "dry_up": 1.092673, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074853, "annualized_volatility": 0.396717, "from_high_reference": -0.238632, "from_low_reference": 0.402521 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.470517, "fair_value_reference": 35.851958, "structural_low": 44.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.053067, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.050495, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.242132, "worst_return": -0.184295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051767, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.070178, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.278788, "worst_return": -0.205529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01596, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.076832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319818, "worst_return": -0.066808, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03864, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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56.488565, "fair_value": 35.14217, "relative_strength": -16.915054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.796288, "energy": 72.886157, "activity_lines": [ 47.756667, 49.608665, 53.082624, 54.866856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.779999, "volume": 26762700, "typical_volume": 25455159.95, "trend": 56.021284, "fair_value": 35.287626, "relative_strength": -8.602752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.575732, "energy": 76.81543, "activity_lines": [ 46.972666, 48.520909, 52.123152, 54.175981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.43, "volume": 29377212, "typical_volume": 24957299.4, "trend": 55.812186, "fair_value": 35.463598, "relative_strength": -1.752262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.428801, "energy": 56.764514, "activity_lines": [ 47.561333, 48.328, 51.604886, 53.750737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.18, "volume": 31726441, "typical_volume": 24989210.75, "trend": 55.633955, "fair_value": 35.655514, "relative_strength": 4.993575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.804184, "energy": 38.456291, "activity_lines": [ 49.136666, 48.808545, 51.431188, 53.516403 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.400002, "volume": 18385626, "typical_volume": 24310095.85, "trend": 55.470517, "fair_value": 35.851958, "relative_strength": -0.080507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.905533, "energy": 24.71242, "activity_lines": [ 50.422667, 49.405818, 51.322857, 53.30776 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }