{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73b28e7f-7345-42b4-a3c5-8d9456c89c41", "symbol": "600251", "name": "Xinjiang Guannong Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.197, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.769, "architecture_energy": 38.685, "architecture_maturity": 44.315, "architecture_confidence": 88.401, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.69, "rotation_up": 26.89, "upward_expansion": 18.48, "deceleration": 43.59, "rotation_down": 39.5, "downward_expansion": 68.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.192, 9.091492, 9.709001, 10.098018 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.43, "trend_reference": 10.402561, "distance_from_trend": -0.093492, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.263887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.654039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131676, "excess_performance": -0.088472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00761, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.141109, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375431, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258306, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131676, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56661809, "relative_activity": 1.061293, "balance": 0.479502, "dry_up": 1.028573, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072929, "annualized_volatility": 0.442997, "from_high_reference": -0.286147, "from_low_reference": 0.217528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.402561, "fair_value_reference": 8.263887, "structural_low": 8.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006994, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.025656, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.314249, "worst_return": -0.140878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020744, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.030004, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179389, "worst_return": -0.012416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007512, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076587, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.37783, "worst_return": -0.099407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-9.510451, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.726678, "energy": 73.12818, "activity_lines": [ 9.036803, 9.647748, 10.431544, 10.525898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.75, "volume": 46020905, "typical_volume": 61050523.75, "trend": 10.381227, "fair_value": 8.250439, "relative_strength": -9.581514, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.265096, "energy": 72.711974, "activity_lines": [ 8.870349, 9.356533, 10.238512, 10.420378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.72, "volume": 57153621, "typical_volume": 59832298.5, "trend": 10.391894, "fair_value": 8.253967, "relative_strength": -4.387002, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.995429, "energy": 80.257363, "activity_lines": [ 8.766121, 9.136227, 10.048955, 10.313202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.14, "volume": 57397777, "typical_volume": 58504954.65, "trend": 10.397561, "fair_value": 8.258861, "relative_strength": -1.224508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.642201, "energy": 64.110278, "activity_lines": [ 8.873472, 9.05883, 9.912018, 10.232434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.28, "volume": 48446418, "typical_volume": 55342968.6, "trend": 10.395894, "fair_value": 8.261338, "relative_strength": -0.331671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.742744, "energy": 51.000288, "activity_lines": [ 9.032, 9.050161, 9.797272, 10.160334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.43, "volume": 56661809, "typical_volume": 53389393.0, "trend": 10.402561, "fair_value": 8.263887, "relative_strength": -1.654039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.769311, "energy": 38.684708, "activity_lines": [ 9.192, 9.091492, 9.709001, 10.098018 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }