{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73b76459-c72d-488b-96ae-2fe31e394da8", "symbol": "TI", "name": "Tilaknagar Industries Ltd.", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.79, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.693, "architecture_energy": 58.41, "architecture_maturity": 56.588, "architecture_confidence": 86.721, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.43, "rotation_up": 66.1, "upward_expansion": 84.65, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 11.16, "downward_expansion": 11.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 464.706665, 454.754545, 449.143096, 447.051613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 490.75, "trend_reference": 443.175001, "distance_from_trend": 0.10735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 339.604338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445064, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.596463, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083453, "excess_performance": 0.127162, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10735, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01587, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445064, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085965, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008218, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.615635, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7217189, "relative_activity": 3.128708, "balance": 2.615635, "dry_up": 1.687171, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059101, "annualized_volatility": 0.265276, "from_high_reference": -0.10724, "from_low_reference": 0.286201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 443.175001, "fair_value_reference": 339.604338, "structural_low": 412.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007885, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004996, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.411478, "worst_return": -0.058615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058998, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.085747, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.257841, "worst_return": -0.025431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.246881, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.165527, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.517112, "worst_return": -0.038257, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.47265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.470293, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071337, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032605, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"mixed", "direction": 4.595235, "energy": 5.309263, "activity_lines": [ 444.116669, 440.768184, 442.542382, 442.36613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 442.200012, "volume": 945679, "typical_volume": 2058226.15, "trend": 442.021667, "fair_value": 334.059068, "relative_strength": -1.414519, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.949106, "energy": 7.999044, "activity_lines": [ 444.183339, 441.024549, 442.466193, 442.334625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 441.799988, "volume": 1358058, "typical_volume": 1964188.35, "trend": 441.180001, "fair_value": 335.828481, "relative_strength": 0.992394, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.757878, "energy": 15.90857, "activity_lines": [ 443.630001, 441.525456, 442.40762, 442.320324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 465.149994, "volume": 6046685, "typical_volume": 2102731.7, "trend": 441.385001, "fair_value": 337.706753, "relative_strength": 3.800531, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.776384, "energy": 36.002922, "activity_lines": [ 450.946665, 446.083636, 444.614524, 443.866775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 490.75, "volume": 7217189, "typical_volume": 2306763.1, "trend": 443.175001, "fair_value": 339.604338, "relative_strength": 8.596463, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.693317, "energy": 58.410206, "activity_lines": [ 464.706665, 454.754545, 449.143096, 447.051613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }