{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73bc1d0e-676e-4466-80b3-9867c4e38bcb", "symbol": "GUI", "name": "Guillemot Corporation S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.25, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.512, "architecture_energy": 5.357, "architecture_maturity": 28.514, "architecture_confidence": 49.8, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.67, "rotation_up": 33.14, "upward_expansion": 22.17, "deceleration": 62.33, "rotation_down": 30.14, "downward_expansion": 31.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.357333, 4.343263, 4.38944, 4.379751 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.51, "trend_reference": 4.381439, "distance_from_trend": 0.029342, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.47877, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176823, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.985648, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008791, "excess_performance": -0.062103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018891, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176823, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022574, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0339, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008791, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16016, "relative_activity": 0.473724, "balance": 0.939946, "dry_up": 0.548142, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055858, "annualized_volatility": 0.359644, "from_high_reference": -0.214286, "from_low_reference": 0.205195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.381439, "fair_value_reference": 5.47877, "structural_low": 3.742134, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.038402, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03461, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.110017, "worst_return": -0.245562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.060163, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.076728, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.02349, "worst_return": -0.311475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.111328, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.179886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17561, "worst_return": -0.295302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.182889, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.251507, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.019445, "worst_return": -0.418541, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045593, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113281, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080292, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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"close": 4.31, "volume": 2475, "typical_volume": 37638.9, "trend": 4.404772, "fair_value": 5.545886, "relative_strength": -10.783359, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.563667, "energy": 28.061014, "activity_lines": [ 4.302019, 4.402186, 4.398405, 4.390122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.32, "volume": 28275, "typical_volume": 38252.95, "trend": 4.392772, "fair_value": 5.529668, "relative_strength": -10.290123, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.191299, "energy": 28.570335, "activity_lines": [ 4.295333, 4.37443, 4.393581, 4.384653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.46, "volume": 15832, "typical_volume": 34028.2, "trend": 4.394439, "fair_value": 5.513129, "relative_strength": -7.435834, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.376376, "energy": 12.078195, "activity_lines": [ 4.347333, 4.376291, 4.40147, 4.38899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.12, "volume": 14005, "typical_volume": 33407.1, "trend": 4.378772, "fair_value": 5.495693, "relative_strength": -15.262223, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.998145, "energy": 29.38499, "activity_lines": [ 4.283333, 4.319716, 4.376217, 4.371284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.51, "volume": 16016, "typical_volume": 33808.75, "trend": 4.381439, "fair_value": 5.47877, "relative_strength": -8.985648, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.512421, "energy": 5.357093, "activity_lines": [ 4.357333, 4.343263, 4.38944, 4.379751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }