{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73c75787-96ec-4d6e-a5d8-9ce0502a38db", "symbol": "UBTP", "name": "UBS Core BBG TIPS 1-10 UCITS ETF hGBPacc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 87.979, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.183, "architecture_energy": 11.964, "architecture_maturity": 24.539, "architecture_confidence": 55.18, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.41, "rotation_up": 28.63, "upward_expansion": 45.62, "deceleration": 68.94, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 32.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 1599.616667, 1600.268182, 1601.727381, 1600.926882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1601.25, "trend_reference": 1598.716667, "distance_from_trend": 0.001585, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1510.300128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.33322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006917, "excess_performance": -0.044318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00383, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033681, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006917, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.443485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41724, "relative_activity": 0.81283, "balance": 0.443485, "dry_up": 1.452449, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00466, "annualized_volatility": 0.026524, "from_high_reference": -0.011879, "from_low_reference": 0.027101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1598.716667, "fair_value_reference": 1510.300128, "structural_low": 1581.64502, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000783, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.017763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.010253, "worst_return": -0.011651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005426, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.052145, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.008609, "worst_return": -0.016145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0219, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.059754, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035787, "worst_return": -0.02249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027643, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.041838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -5.366298, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.217371, "energy": 16.497117, "activity_lines": [ 1602.1, 1602.009091, 1602.486905, 1600.746237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1597.5, "volume": 38958, "typical_volume": 48134.75, "trend": 1597.583333, "fair_value": 1507.800128, "relative_strength": -6.698707, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.543602, "energy": 4.747586, "activity_lines": [ 1600.833333, 1601.159091, 1602.122619, 1600.778495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1596.75, "volume": 127338, "typical_volume": 50599.0, "trend": 1598.116667, "fair_value": 1509.027692, "relative_strength": -7.593697, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.294099, "energy": 10.174592, "activity_lines": [ 1599.283333, 1600.295455, 1601.713095, 1600.724731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1601.25, "volume": 41724, "typical_volume": 51331.75, "trend": 1598.716667, "fair_value": 1510.300128, "relative_strength": -7.33322, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.182896, "energy": 11.964269, "activity_lines": [ 1599.616667, 1600.268182, 1601.727381, 1600.926882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }