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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.216, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.923, "architecture_energy": 94.981, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.914, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.98, "rotation_up": 88.16, "upward_expansion": 99.9, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 8.47, "downward_expansion": 21.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 113277.601042, 113183.81946, 113081.677232, 113004.048068 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 113355.0, "trend_reference": 112884.533334, "distance_from_trend": 0.004168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 109620.026242, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.89626, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007182, "excess_performance": -0.222647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002807, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003246, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.26358, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.565402, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 192878, "relative_activity": 1.364382, "balance": 5.565402, "dry_up": 1.297586, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000801, "annualized_volatility": 0.004393, "from_high_reference": -0.000132, "from_low_reference": 0.017158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112884.533334, "fair_value_reference": 109620.026242, "structural_low": 112551.664684, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 64, "median_return": 0.001927, "positive_rate": 0.921875, "directional_follow_through": 0.921875, "median_excess_return": 0.003483, "regime_survival": 0.984375, "best_return": 0.003878, "worst_return": -0.000725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.006572, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002481, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.010348, "worst_return": 0.000924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013504, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003707, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.018422, "worst_return": 0.00316, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.634686, "energy": 95.145554, "activity_lines": [ 113219.144792, 113134.155114, 113045.568527, 112971.690457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 113355.0, "volume": 192878, "typical_volume": 141366.55, "trend": 112884.533334, "fair_value": 109620.026242, "relative_strength": -20.89626, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.922708, "energy": 94.981442, "activity_lines": [ 113277.601042, 113183.81946, 113081.677232, 113004.048068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }