{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73d54dce-2b36-4ec4-ad47-592f08e92a9b", "symbol": "ADGM", "name": "Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.431, "architecture_energy": 59.3, "architecture_maturity": 39.448, "architecture_confidence": 88.72, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.27, "rotation_up": 23.21, "upward_expansion": 10.87, "deceleration": 46.54, "rotation_down": 60.07, "downward_expansion": 86.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.53378, 0.568153, 0.70486, 0.812087 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.6835, "trend_reference": 0.91413, "distance_from_trend": -0.252295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.60875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.575136, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.282201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.309596, "excess_performance": -0.49705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252295, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.575136, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13477, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.452822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.309596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 116.186878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 503224902, "relative_activity": 19.577893, "balance": 116.186878, "dry_up": 4.905982, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.239739, "annualized_volatility": 1.170943, "from_high_reference": -0.735283, "from_low_reference": 0.88292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.91413, "fair_value_reference": 1.60875, "structural_low": 0.363, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013131, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003108, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.279427, "worst_return": -0.253639, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181939, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.015152, "worst_return": -0.015152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.309596, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.49705, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.309596, "worst_return": -0.309596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 1.629478, "relative_strength": -60.604981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.011503, "energy": 84.273983, "activity_lines": [ 0.543973, 0.605947, 0.77611, 0.864278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3783, "volume": 517618, "typical_volume": 564853.95, "trend": 0.923687, "fair_value": 1.617562, "relative_strength": -68.665481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.738972, "energy": 94.241391, "activity_lines": [ 0.479093, 0.555098, 0.724352, 0.827583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6835, "volume": 503224902, "typical_volume": 25703731.0, "trend": 0.91413, "fair_value": 1.60875, "relative_strength": -45.282201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.431343, "energy": 59.30006, "activity_lines": [ 0.53378, 0.568153, 0.70486, 0.812087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }