{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73d9fe49-fcc9-4b55-b5b0-3d3cad04fa77", "symbol": "SEMG", "name": "Amundi MSCI Semiconductors UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.574, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.705, "architecture_energy": 24.395, "architecture_maturity": 73.753, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.88, "rotation_up": 19.27, "upward_expansion": 53.56, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 32.98, "downward_expansion": 19.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 9292.533333, 9539.345455, 9425.47381, 8911.170968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9539.0, "trend_reference": 8227.45, "distance_from_trend": 0.159411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4907.699037, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.943681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 22.858664, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.434436, "excess_performance": 0.383201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16925, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.943681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.228587, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225511, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.434436, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.004634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66109, "relative_activity": 0.804441, "balance": 2.004634, "dry_up": 1.220886, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07884, "annualized_volatility": 0.343723, "from_high_reference": -0.113311, "from_low_reference": 1.008633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8227.45, "fair_value_reference": 4907.699037, "structural_low": 6203.0, "invalidation": "A 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0.033653, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012966, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.84476, "worst_return": -0.082305, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079001, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041664, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039847, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055963, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164224, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195265, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165438, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044781, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"energy": 42.63438, "activity_lines": [ 9705.6, 9807.472727, 9263.442857, 8672.339785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9383.0, "volume": 47731, "typical_volume": 75021.85, "trend": 8041.05, "fair_value": 4820.21346, "relative_strength": 24.680962, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.177494, "energy": 30.516776, "activity_lines": [ 9522.733333, 9736.327273, 9340.202381, 8765.936559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8880.0, "volume": 187685, "typical_volume": 81638.0, "trend": 8126.816667, "fair_value": 4861.441024, "relative_strength": 15.705641, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.013871, "energy": 25.396717, "activity_lines": [ 9256.4, 9573.090909, 9356.657143, 8820.062366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9539.0, "volume": 66109, "typical_volume": 82180.05, "trend": 8227.45, "fair_value": 4907.699037, "relative_strength": 22.858664, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.705173, "energy": 24.395011, "activity_lines": [ 9292.533333, 9539.345455, 9425.47381, 8911.170968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }