{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73db05b0-9345-4947-952e-bc9c2441aeb4", "symbol": "002460", "name": "Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.777, "architecture_energy": 86.789, "architecture_maturity": 25.089, "architecture_confidence": 88.349, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.02, "rotation_up": 9.47, "upward_expansion": 21.79, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 78.91, "downward_expansion": 97.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.697794, 54.724527, 63.155956, 66.653252 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 52.82, "trend_reference": 69.373172, "distance_from_trend": -0.238611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.238432, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.626761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230029, "excess_performance": -0.237429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.714106, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.44887, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450698, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 203932666, "relative_activity": 0.797901, "balance": 0.450698, "dry_up": 0.943758, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119167, "annualized_volatility": 0.517372, "from_high_reference": -0.423803, "from_low_reference": 0.502275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.373172, "fair_value_reference": 45.238432, "structural_low": 45.189999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.025279, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.007297, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.314645, "worst_return": -0.205519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.110327, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.054412, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.290619, "worst_return": -0.220397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.070069, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.127044, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.996428, "worst_return": -0.306408, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -22.316702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.072893, "energy": 91.906524, "activity_lines": [ 52.552024, 58.52017, 66.928196, 69.073662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.709999, "volume": 220733668, "typical_volume": 257449792.0, "trend": 69.708839, "fair_value": 45.262116, "relative_strength": -20.147565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.131617, "energy": 89.697635, "activity_lines": [ 50.65694, 56.10153, 64.8456, 67.742855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.82, "volume": 203932666, "typical_volume": 255586461.5, "trend": 69.373172, "fair_value": 45.238432, "relative_strength": -19.626761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.777025, "energy": 86.789287, "activity_lines": [ 50.697794, 54.724527, 63.155956, 66.653252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }