{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73e0d0e3-2cc1-413a-8290-617177974d93", "symbol": "AJASE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy ESG Enhanced Japan UCITS ETF UCITS ETF EUR CAPITALISATION", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.211, "architecture_energy": 66.969, "architecture_maturity": 86.315, "architecture_confidence": 66.672, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.81, "rotation_up": 52.82, "upward_expansion": 78.5, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 29.47, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.7084, 13.676582, 13.288257, 12.966675 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.012, "trend_reference": 12.5476, "distance_from_trend": 0.116708, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.814767, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295636, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.382387, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1665, "excess_performance": -0.004392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075705, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104571, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033824, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1665, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.033025, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3140, "relative_activity": 0.422162, "balance": 5.033025, "dry_up": 0.777269, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022892, "annualized_volatility": 0.206803, "from_high_reference": -0.001141, "from_low_reference": 0.563316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.5476, "fair_value_reference": 10.814767, "structural_low": 11.332, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013312, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004197, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.037576, "worst_return": -0.010952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061515, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 9.921, "volume": 2030, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 10.026, "volume": 3900, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 10.47, "volume": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.148491, "energy": 95.736718, "activity_lines": [ 13.5664, 13.285345, 12.761019, 12.497888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.928, "volume": 73177, "typical_volume": 6685.1, "trend": 12.182733, "fair_value": 10.681849, "relative_strength": 6.226228, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.029297, "energy": 92.073065, "activity_lines": [ 13.7268, 13.451018, 12.896686, 12.61692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.764, "volume": 8325, "typical_volume": 7101.35, "trend": 12.277, "fair_value": 10.717276, "relative_strength": 6.104821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.105593, "energy": 76.269838, "activity_lines": [ 13.7864, 13.5568, 13.010886, 12.718938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.546, "volume": 4620, "typical_volume": 7332.35, "trend": 12.364, "fair_value": 10.74942, "relative_strength": 4.253467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.436076, "energy": 66.524362, "activity_lines": [ 13.720933, 13.597455, 13.099257, 12.800809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.368, "volume": 7040, "typical_volume": 7325.1, "trend": 12.445067, "fair_value": 10.778843, "relative_strength": 1.903251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.936862, "energy": 63.340382, "activity_lines": [ 13.5964, 13.584218, 13.166648, 12.865583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.012, "volume": 3140, "typical_volume": 7437.9, "trend": 12.5476, "fair_value": 10.814767, "relative_strength": 3.382387, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.211219, "energy": 66.968984, "activity_lines": [ 13.7084, 13.676582, 13.288257, 12.966675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }