{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73e211cf-6ec8-4df6-bfe5-525b780700c9", "symbol": "300375", "name": "Tianjin Pengling Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.479, "architecture_energy": 60.334, "architecture_maturity": 44.826, "architecture_confidence": 87.748, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 17.23, "upward_expansion": 10.3, "deceleration": 50.95, "rotation_down": 65.38, "downward_expansion": 83.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.839333, 3.955455, 4.22781, 4.469957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.92, "trend_reference": 4.811333, "distance_from_trend": -0.185257, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.755021, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.248049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.292419, "excess_performance": -0.299819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185257, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175608, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026754, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.50612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44175969, "relative_activity": 0.816887, "balance": 0.50612, "dry_up": 0.771412, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085165, "annualized_volatility": 0.354727, "from_high_reference": -0.377778, "from_low_reference": 0.094972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.811333, "fair_value_reference": 4.755021, "structural_low": 3.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.007949, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.026138, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.11, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.079278, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.047038, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.355091, "worst_return": -0.216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.152614, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.170657, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.484777, "worst_return": -0.018617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.698848, "energy": 88.043468, "activity_lines": [ 3.845333, 4.052, 4.346857, 4.596602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.88, "volume": 38111510, "typical_volume": 55730898.3, "trend": 4.856, "fair_value": 4.753933, "relative_strength": -21.739568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.840075, "energy": 77.431925, "activity_lines": [ 3.828, 3.991091, 4.281857, 4.530344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.92, "volume": 44175969, "typical_volume": 54078431.9, "trend": 4.811333, "fair_value": 4.755021, "relative_strength": -24.248049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.478596, "energy": 60.334452, "activity_lines": [ 3.839333, 3.955455, 4.22781, 4.469957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }