{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73e3c938-adb6-4954-83ac-1b09928c8d64", "symbol": "688336", "name": "Sunshine Guojian Pharmaceutical (Shanghai) Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.881, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.436, "architecture_energy": 13.749, "architecture_maturity": 16.396, "architecture_confidence": 39.724, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.56, "rotation_up": 29.24, "upward_expansion": 14.12, "deceleration": 54.59, "rotation_down": 45.77, "downward_expansion": 44.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.466, 45.610491, 45.868852, 46.163997 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.950001, "trend_reference": 45.595843, "distance_from_trend": 0.029699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.179255, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.793405, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.958024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143752, "excess_performance": 0.186956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00328, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.793405, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290627, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08958, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002606, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143752, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50833743, "relative_activity": 0.90199, "balance": 0.425562, "dry_up": 1.161067, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176718, "annualized_volatility": 0.894033, "from_high_reference": -0.28699, "from_low_reference": 0.473057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.595843, "fair_value_reference": 26.179255, "structural_low": 35.445921, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004595, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120888, "worst_return": -0.092145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.077998, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222647, "worst_return": -0.195454, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.125324, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.061283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307575, "worst_return": -0.196591, 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-0.046591, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035665, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.891599, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158863, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.189392, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }