{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73e4f19c-f349-49f2-8d11-beebb822b8a2", "symbol": "KLC", "name": "KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 95, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 8, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 75.202, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 78.28, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.315, "architecture_energy": 79.004, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.228, "architecture_age_weeks": 2, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.315, "energy": 79.004, "maturity": 24.0, "confidence": 81.228, "confirmation": 73.64, "age_weeks": 2, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.82, "rotation_up": 75.63, "upward_expansion": 93.72, "deceleration": 42.34, "rotation_down": 11.49, "downward_expansion": 18.05 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 5.137333, "10": 4.834182, "20": 4.361952, "30": 4.072344 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.162978, "10": 1.01389, "20": 0.911403, "30": 0.514435 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 1.652881, "fan_width_change_4": 0.671941, "fan_width_percentile": 0.378788, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.192894, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.375515, "price_acceptance": 0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.330062, "accepted_above": 0.833333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.25 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 75/100." }, "latest_close": 5.35, "sma_30": 3.921667, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.364216, "sma_30_slope": 0.002471, "fair_value": 10.208526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.475928, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.150283, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 2.261728, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 44.540313, "range_position_52": 0.440636, "returns": { "13": 0.286058, "26": 0.14561, "52": -0.435654 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.06029, "52": -0.650489 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 78.89, "2": 44.0, "3": 30.15, "4": 19.47 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.364216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 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5.137333, "activity_10": 4.834182, "activity_20": 4.361952, "activity_30": 4.072344 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.220339, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.199949, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.220339, "worst_return": 0.220339, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "stage_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "stage_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "stage_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "stage_ledger": [ { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "weeks": 8, "return": 0.278317 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 8, "return": 0.2954, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "architecture_ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "weeks": 4, "return": 0.268608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "weeks": 5, "return": 0.027363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "weeks": 5, "return": 0.254808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 2, "return": 0.085193, "active": true } ] } }