{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73e692f2-2dd6-4bd6-80bc-459b375ba262", "symbol": "000626", "name": "Grand Industrial Holding Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.724, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.122, "architecture_energy": 26.196, "architecture_maturity": 51.067, "architecture_confidence": 90.922, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.16, "rotation_up": 28.58, "upward_expansion": 17.76, "deceleration": 43.6, "rotation_down": 37.57, "downward_expansion": 67.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.972, 6.832545, 7.287476, 7.522925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.64, "trend_reference": 7.744333, "distance_from_trend": -0.013472, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.543141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167635, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.782532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037783, "excess_performance": -0.045183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013472, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.435516, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46698055, "relative_activity": 0.786974, "balance": 0.435516, "dry_up": 1.018133, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09998, "annualized_volatility": 0.482247, "from_high_reference": -0.336229, "from_low_reference": 0.292724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.744333, "fair_value_reference": 6.543141, "structural_low": 5.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.012402, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.004163, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.227433, "worst_return": -0.271204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.031015, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.09795, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.481481, "worst_return": -0.31031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.157489, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.108216, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.219282, "worst_return": -0.459624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00607, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.365035, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033493, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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6.554103, "relative_strength": -16.760516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.832876, "energy": 76.034509, "activity_lines": [ 6.483333, 6.852909, 7.502762, 7.676602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.43, "volume": 59490332, "typical_volume": 70922065.0, "trend": 7.793667, "fair_value": 6.546859, "relative_strength": -16.568154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.914289, "energy": 68.56048, "activity_lines": [ 6.440667, 6.709455, 7.370571, 7.585355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.94, "volume": 52440446, "typical_volume": 63902292.1, "trend": 7.754, "fair_value": 6.542885, "relative_strength": -8.228313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.639422, "energy": 46.775841, "activity_lines": [ 6.604667, 6.697636, 7.292095, 7.53028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.64, "volume": 46698055, "typical_volume": 59338772.9, "trend": 7.744333, "fair_value": 6.543141, "relative_strength": -3.782532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.12151, "energy": 26.195635, "activity_lines": [ 6.972, 6.832545, 7.287476, 7.522925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }