{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73e6d1da-b9f8-4a46-a1ae-f280253c2af4", "symbol": "ARKI", "name": "ARK Artificial Intelligence & Robotics UCITS ETF Class A USD Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.308, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.537, "architecture_energy": 22.09, "architecture_maturity": 56.751, "architecture_confidence": 78.704, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.1, "rotation_up": 30.32, "upward_expansion": 51.95, "deceleration": 79.0, "rotation_down": 39.54, "downward_expansion": 29.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.117, 9.207818, 9.231214, 9.045426 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.591, "trend_reference": 8.868767, "distance_from_trend": 0.081436, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.259619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321144, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.613007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.164522, "excess_performance": -0.00637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081436, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021575, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321144, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006978, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164522, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.514611, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51368, "relative_activity": 0.957574, "balance": 1.514611, "dry_up": 0.912648, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054282, "annualized_volatility": 0.295384, "from_high_reference": -0.037435, "from_low_reference": 0.276587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.868767, "fair_value_reference": 7.259619, "structural_low": 7.513, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030233, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067456, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055005, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089267, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 4.52, "volume": 98584, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 21.249244, "energy": 14.568958, "activity_lines": [ 9.1316, 9.2798, 9.1937, 9.00692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.718, "volume": 59096, "typical_volume": 53500.3, "trend": 8.856633, "fair_value": 7.239692, "relative_strength": -12.767797, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.087266, "energy": 14.337946, "activity_lines": [ 8.965333, 9.156455, 9.171943, 8.998047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.591, "volume": 51368, "typical_volume": 53643.9, "trend": 8.868767, "fair_value": 7.259619, "relative_strength": -6.613007, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.537051, "energy": 22.090302, "activity_lines": [ 9.117, 9.207818, 9.231214, 9.045426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }