{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73e8e8dc-8ba0-43e6-a257-8707006b7d02", "symbol": "BON", "name": "Bonduelle SCA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.227, "architecture_energy": 28.046, "architecture_maturity": 26.024, "architecture_confidence": 46.207, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.98, "rotation_up": 49.76, "upward_expansion": 37.43, "deceleration": 43.89, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 45.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.699333, 8.431818, 8.338381, 8.449398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.61, "trend_reference": 8.791, "distance_from_trend": -0.020589, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.077545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065918, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.307566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.221519, "excess_performance": -0.27483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04684, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065918, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073185, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221519, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.82537, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120548, "relative_activity": 2.0538, "balance": 0.82537, "dry_up": 1.320229, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046368, "annualized_volatility": 0.321194, "from_high_reference": -0.242077, "from_low_reference": 0.213261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.791, "fair_value_reference": 8.077545, "structural_low": 7.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033596, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047536, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.042253, "worst_return": -0.116588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.182979, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.178726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157746, "worst_return": -0.240758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208511, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.258491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076056, "worst_return": -0.377251, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.206905, 8.556551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.06, "volume": 79483, "typical_volume": 79123.0, "trend": 8.963731, "fair_value": 8.11367, "relative_strength": -10.378984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.987339, "energy": 53.273273, "activity_lines": [ 7.928, 7.999273, 8.175143, 8.494335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.6, "volume": 64515, "typical_volume": 72146.45, "trend": 8.918508, "fair_value": 8.104031, "relative_strength": -4.343996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.904107, "energy": 30.705834, "activity_lines": [ 8.15, 8.098909, 8.204619, 8.470868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.54, "volume": 60002, "typical_volume": 63321.7, "trend": 8.871286, "fair_value": 8.094008, "relative_strength": -5.390442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.224659, "energy": 19.946356, "activity_lines": [ 8.312667, 8.180364, 8.229905, 8.446449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.14, "volume": 64899, "typical_volume": 57879.65, "trend": 8.833, "fair_value": 8.089966, "relative_strength": -0.46815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 20.839156, "energy": 32.861207, "activity_lines": [ 8.642, 8.363455, 8.311952, 8.463785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.61, "volume": 120548, "typical_volume": 58695.1, "trend": 8.791, "fair_value": 8.077545, "relative_strength": -8.307566, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.227096, "energy": 28.045836, "activity_lines": [ 8.699333, 8.431818, 8.338381, 8.449398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }