{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73f0a472-652f-48b9-9987-bb29d9416281", "symbol": "RUCHINFRA", "name": "Ruchi Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.842, "architecture_energy": 32.312, "architecture_maturity": 22.162, "architecture_confidence": 61.72, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.38, "rotation_up": 17.52, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 52.26, "rotation_down": 54.67, "downward_expansion": 48.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.854667, 5.942182, 6.072, 6.020108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.82, "trend_reference": 5.981667, "distance_from_trend": -0.027027, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.918397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.413212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.283514, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042763, "excess_performance": 0.000946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027027, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.413212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042763, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186773, "relative_activity": 0.429966, "balance": 0.747624, "dry_up": 0.460705, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072297, "annualized_volatility": 0.431396, "from_high_reference": -0.294545, "from_low_reference": 0.437037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.981667, "fair_value_reference": 9.918397, "structural_low": 4.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.019737, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.020877, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.696335, "worst_return": -0.119565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.058008, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.074004, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.404494, "worst_return": -0.225071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.072517, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.533708, "worst_return": -0.440883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07091, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.378788, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.149194, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164259, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.243286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089533, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073248, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.95, "volume": 446495, "typical_volume": 484820.2, "trend": 8.716667, "fair_value": 8.468269, "relative_strength": -9.665136, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.509279, "energy": 16.698114, "activity_lines": [ 8.77, 8.592727, 8.552143, 8.566022 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 8.85, "volume": 382144, "typical_volume": 485235.5, "trend": 8.671667, "fair_value": 8.455128, "relative_strength": -10.462323, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.16311, "energy": 25.353015, "activity_lines": [ 8.846667, 8.651818, 8.583333, 8.574624 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 9.0, "volume": 431063, "typical_volume": 488262.1, "trend": 8.65, "fair_value": 8.453846, "relative_strength": -9.704517, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.935249, "energy": 42.145226, "activity_lines": [ 8.93, 8.731818, 8.627381, 8.595806 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 9.55, "volume": 710819, "typical_volume": 498069.6, "trend": 8.638333, "fair_value": 8.464103, "relative_strength": -5.667623, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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"close": 5.75, "volume": 136039, "typical_volume": 475448.8, "trend": 6.025, "fair_value": 9.971474, "relative_strength": -10.612503, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.042187, "energy": 21.487812, "activity_lines": [ 5.937333, 6.066364, 6.105381, 6.042968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.99, "volume": 231047, "typical_volume": 475803.45, "trend": 6.008, "fair_value": 9.957628, "relative_strength": -4.34114, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.428004, "energy": 23.701487, "activity_lines": [ 5.925333, 6.034727, 6.105714, 6.04071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.86, "volume": 246644, "typical_volume": 470015.05, "trend": 5.991333, "fair_value": 9.938141, "relative_strength": -8.374581, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.499737, "energy": 27.586892, "activity_lines": [ 5.884, 5.988182, 6.092333, 6.031161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.82, "volume": 186773, "typical_volume": 434390.6, "trend": 5.981667, "fair_value": 9.918397, "relative_strength": -9.283514, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.84224, "energy": 32.311613, "activity_lines": [ 5.854667, 5.942182, 6.072, 6.020108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }