{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73f1d3be-5cd1-4ce9-bc84-4277bf4d4684", "symbol": "VRSK", "name": "Verisk Analytics, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.169, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.268, "architecture_energy": 47.577, "architecture_maturity": 8.361, "architecture_confidence": 46.396, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.48, "rotation_up": 64.06, "upward_expansion": 55.92, "deceleration": 27.85, "rotation_down": 17.78, "downward_expansion": 16.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 170.066667, 167.35466, 160.833147, 160.471694 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 167.0, "trend_reference": 162.212447, "distance_from_trend": 0.029514, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 220.222667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.241677, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.186293, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080526, "excess_performance": -0.093721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029514, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.241677, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103575, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152757, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.18419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 488, "relative_activity": 6.130653, "balance": 0.18419, "dry_up": 3.457915, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060512, "annualized_volatility": 0.412785, "from_high_reference": -0.28897, "from_low_reference": 0.240939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.212447, "fair_value_reference": 220.222667, "structural_low": 134.575462, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039085, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035335, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.09172, "worst_return": -0.141255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0481, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.051196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186014, "worst_return": -0.141295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129421, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.107856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293932, "worst_return": -0.128324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043317, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005336, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036968, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069445, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.629954, "energy": 20.799433, "activity_lines": [ 156.47023, 153.033503, 154.237884, 158.529962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 166.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15.65, "trend": 165.015997, "fair_value": 221.351043, "relative_strength": -30.194443, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.390327, "energy": 17.971853, "activity_lines": [ 160.233752, 155.647969, 155.096585, 158.542189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 163.0, "volume": 320, "typical_volume": 28.9, "trend": 164.363545, "fair_value": 221.115552, "relative_strength": -29.415426, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.818893, "energy": 18.793165, "activity_lines": [ 161.633333, 157.453744, 155.600112, 158.412124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 176.0, "volume": 118, "typical_volume": 34.8, "trend": 163.999844, "fair_value": 220.926328, "relative_strength": -21.084961, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.085054, "energy": 55.489091, "activity_lines": [ 166.933333, 161.523213, 157.297956, 159.162863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 175.0, "volume": 52, "typical_volume": 37.4, "trend": 163.672607, "fair_value": 220.726924, "relative_strength": -21.432568, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.760253, "energy": 63.372064, "activity_lines": [ 170.733333, 164.875186, 158.885094, 159.872551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 169.0, "volume": 443, "typical_volume": 59.55, "trend": 163.040673, "fair_value": 220.496598, "relative_strength": -23.004213, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.342432, "energy": 53.42097, "activity_lines": [ 171.0, 166.491881, 159.94043, 160.216253 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 167.0, "volume": 488, "typical_volume": 79.6, "trend": 162.212447, "fair_value": 220.222667, "relative_strength": -25.186293, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.267579, "energy": 47.577215, "activity_lines": [ 170.066667, 167.35466, 160.833147, 160.471694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }