{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73f30140-c04f-4784-8827-8d95326ddbcb", "symbol": "VHL", "name": "Vardhman Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.507, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.181, "architecture_energy": 18.641, "architecture_maturity": 41.613, "architecture_confidence": 82.669, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.78, "rotation_up": 30.1, "upward_expansion": 56.15, "deceleration": 86.45, "rotation_down": 27.89, "downward_expansion": 19.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 3500.02666, 3517.085445, 3492.731414, 3440.947081 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3568.699951, "trend_reference": 3383.049984, "distance_from_trend": 0.054877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3575.984793, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.02516, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070075, "excess_performance": 0.113784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013877, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002037, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010252, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12015, "relative_activity": 3.727488, "balance": 0.740377, "dry_up": 1.520468, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046807, "annualized_volatility": 0.223545, "from_high_reference": -0.165216, "from_low_reference": 0.243449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3383.049984, "fair_value_reference": 3575.984793, "structural_low": 2870.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.001883, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037717, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.22258, "worst_return": -0.131116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012536, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047465, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.170855, "worst_return": -0.200616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.071303, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.096572, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.632287, "worst_return": -0.35217, 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3468.909504, 3420.992669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3503.300049, "volume": 2670, "typical_volume": 2746.6, "trend": 3388.156649, "fair_value": 3566.833541, "relative_strength": 2.07082, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.817471, "energy": 28.222938, "activity_lines": [ 3526.193343, 3523.84545, 3479.420939, 3428.226006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3398.0, "volume": 3269, "typical_volume": 2761.75, "trend": 3381.36665, "fair_value": 3570.753042, "relative_strength": -3.229359, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.247599, "energy": 14.827627, "activity_lines": [ 3479.180013, 3504.441815, 3478.685703, 3428.861061 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3568.699951, "volume": 12015, "typical_volume": 3223.35, "trend": 3383.049984, "fair_value": 3575.984793, "relative_strength": 1.02516, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.180603, "energy": 18.640797, "activity_lines": [ 3500.02666, 3517.085445, 3492.731414, 3440.947081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }