{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73f4216e-9ca7-487a-80e6-219b7822fcff", "symbol": "5381", "name": "Spectrum Electrics Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.554, "architecture_energy": 58.956, "architecture_maturity": 14.354, "architecture_confidence": 89.792, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.91, "rotation_up": 10.3, "upward_expansion": 12.74, "deceleration": 37.88, "rotation_down": 63.38, "downward_expansion": 83.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.64, 24.863636, 25.632913, 26.238457 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.049999, "trend_reference": 27.625588, "distance_from_trend": -0.12943, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.278026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.474858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187177, "excess_performance": -0.628549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051541, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.394749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.680101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1529736, "relative_activity": 0.184827, "balance": 0.680101, "dry_up": 0.27728, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140253, "annualized_volatility": 0.521207, "from_high_reference": -0.432153, "from_low_reference": 0.145238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.625588, "fair_value_reference": 30.278026, "structural_low": 21.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.01487, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.012776, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.330769, "worst_return": -0.141531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016461, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.017883, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.237647, "worst_return": -0.096525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015254, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.072749, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.123932, "worst_return": -0.114061, "sufficient": false }, { 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-41.574234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.513424, "energy": 51.947303, "activity_lines": [ 24.196667, 25.832727, 26.021457, 26.743529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.9, "volume": 1487944, "typical_volume": 8409356.7, "trend": 27.802353, "fair_value": 30.273252, "relative_strength": -38.77564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.478737, "energy": 58.171808, "activity_lines": [ 23.696667, 25.323636, 25.807759, 26.480544 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.049999, "volume": 1529736, "typical_volume": 8276599.9, "trend": 27.625588, "fair_value": 30.278026, "relative_strength": -39.474858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.553695, "energy": 58.956421, "activity_lines": [ 23.64, 24.863636, 25.632913, 26.238457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }