{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73f5a574-f78a-4bba-9dd8-00d42b5edaeb", "symbol": "002533", "name": "Gold cup Electric Apparatus Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.854, "architecture_energy": 36.697, "architecture_maturity": 62.428, "architecture_confidence": 55.686, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.95, "rotation_up": 26.32, "upward_expansion": 17.35, "deceleration": 66.69, "rotation_down": 40.04, "downward_expansion": 67.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.083333, 10.965636, 11.536588, 12.067807 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.51, "trend_reference": 12.640179, "distance_from_trend": -0.089412, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.765093, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178688, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.962196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100478, "excess_performance": -0.107877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089412, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178688, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.361416, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66106480, "relative_activity": 1.191566, "balance": 1.361416, "dry_up": 1.018836, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076299, "annualized_volatility": 0.377652, "from_high_reference": -0.283633, "from_low_reference": 0.146414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.640179, "fair_value_reference": 9.765093, "structural_low": 10.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016084, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.0117, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.229426, "worst_return": -0.095731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.168102, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.037574, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.335385, "worst_return": -0.117901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.206891, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.244847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.472025, "worst_return": 0.177942, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 10.48, "volume": 34776283, "typical_volume": 66859486.2, "trend": 12.737649, "fair_value": 9.685537, "relative_strength": -14.076761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.429478, "energy": 83.095128, "activity_lines": [ 10.640667, 11.057859, 11.880523, 12.367508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.51, "volume": 62427849, "typical_volume": 60458114.5, "trend": 12.688561, "fair_value": 9.707045, "relative_strength": -14.028085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.24673, "energy": 61.523597, "activity_lines": [ 10.566667, 10.863818, 11.682929, 12.223789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.42, "volume": 62784018, "typical_volume": 56601823.65, "trend": 12.65916, "fair_value": 9.734728, "relative_strength": -5.154615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.628401, "energy": 50.752313, "activity_lines": [ 10.844667, 10.889636, 11.597311, 12.141946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.51, "volume": 66106480, "typical_volume": 55478676.9, "trend": 12.640179, "fair_value": 9.765093, "relative_strength": -8.962196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.854251, "energy": 36.697014, "activity_lines": [ 11.083333, 10.965636, 11.536588, 12.067807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }