{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "73f6ec2a-ff43-46da-8774-97f545127e11",
    "symbol": "MFG",
    "name": "Mizuho Financial Group Inc.",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 69.775,
    "architecture_energy": 53.212,
    "architecture_maturity": 45.683,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.615,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.64,
        "rotation_up": 62.96,
        "upward_expansion": 83.32,
        "deceleration": 61.06,
        "rotation_down": 19.95,
        "downward_expansion": 7.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.494667,
        10.298,
        9.80881,
        9.450645
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.71,
    "trend_reference": 9.117,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.174729,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.517756,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.941006,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 17.891077,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.114464,
    "excess_performance": -0.011161,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.174729,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.119474,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.941006,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.179464,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.178911,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079099,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.114464,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.978684,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 17171989,
      "relative_activity": 0.869046,
      "balance": 1.978684,
      "dry_up": 0.973788,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.069479,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.367605,
      "from_high_reference": -0.013812,
      "from_low_reference": 0.758621
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.117,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.517756,
      "structural_low": 7.54,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 37,
        "median_return": 0.029586,
        "positive_rate": 0.756757,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.756757,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030761,
        "regime_survival": 0.810811,
        "best_return": 0.210327,
        "worst_return": -0.16129,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.109975,
        "positive_rate": 0.846154,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.846154,
        "median_excess_return": 0.060991,
        "regime_survival": 0.769231,
        "best_return": 0.310204,
        "worst_return": -0.051892,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.258214,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.092725,
        "regime_survival": 0.857143,
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        "worst_return": 0.117928,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.295753,
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        "best_return": 0.525003,
        "worst_return": 0.443649,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040189,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.064516,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "typical_volume": 20055566.25,
        "trend": 9.024667,
        "fair_value": 5.468213,
        "relative_strength": 19.748667,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 65.042412,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.71,
        "volume": 17171989,
        "typical_volume": 19759581.65,
        "trend": 9.117,
        "fair_value": 5.517756,
        "relative_strength": 17.891077,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}