{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73f716a6-cc8b-47cb-86df-5c5c5217878e", "symbol": "WTI3L", "name": "SG ETC DAILY LONG +3X WTI OIL FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.21, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.986, "architecture_energy": 17.259, "architecture_maturity": 60.683, "architecture_confidence": 65.465, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.45, "rotation_up": 36.03, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 48.02, "rotation_down": 28.05, "downward_expansion": 37.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.669467, 8.0576, 9.833638, 10.857425 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.135, "trend_reference": 10.840667, "distance_from_trend": -0.34183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.142249, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.654478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.304626, "excess_performance": 0.133734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.34183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135767, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219557, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.662963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.832462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.304626, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.545229, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33003, "relative_activity": 1.047618, "balance": 1.545229, "dry_up": 1.371532, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.414447, "annualized_volatility": 2.26345, "from_high_reference": -0.756485, "from_low_reference": 0.986912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.840667, "fair_value_reference": 9.142249, "structural_low": 4.937, "invalidation": "A renewed 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.641451, "energy": 59.201692, "activity_lines": [ 6.1144, 8.347255, 11.243076, 11.2184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.524, "volume": 58804, "typical_volume": 62269.1, "trend": 10.339183, "fair_value": 9.206288, "relative_strength": -7.388782, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.098575, "energy": 58.983913, "activity_lines": [ 6.703933, 8.031673, 10.831205, 11.111253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.98, "volume": 46577, "typical_volume": 34574.15, "trend": 10.564667, "fair_value": 9.201442, "relative_strength": 18.667443, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.630057, "energy": 31.777919, "activity_lines": [ 8.1894, 8.247873, 10.641633, 11.152596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.609, "volume": 34445, "typical_volume": 32139.25, "trend": 10.754483, "fair_value": 9.181781, "relative_strength": 3.061599, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.283693, "energy": 14.301337, "activity_lines": [ 8.982267, 8.325636, 10.335367, 11.09094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.135, "volume": 33003, "typical_volume": 31502.9, "trend": 10.840667, "fair_value": 9.142249, "relative_strength": -25.654478, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.986499, "energy": 17.259324, "activity_lines": [ 8.669467, 8.0576, 9.833638, 10.857425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }