{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73fb5b00-98d2-4787-b605-138f2ee871ab", "symbol": "ZID", "name": "BMO MSCI India Selection Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 87.844, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.962, "architecture_energy": 14.724, "architecture_maturity": 13.828, "architecture_confidence": 39.737, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.33, "rotation_up": 38.84, "upward_expansion": 37.86, "deceleration": 31.98, "rotation_down": 21.8, "downward_expansion": 43.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.329333, 43.10709, 42.620571, 42.702451 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.16, "trend_reference": 43.381, "distance_from_trend": 0.017957, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.533984, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090122, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.207532, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077502, "excess_performance": -0.197923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017957, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068703, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090122, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024891, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9100, "relative_activity": 0.310952, "balance": 0.546485, "dry_up": 0.439945, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028933, "annualized_volatility": 0.201684, "from_high_reference": -0.200817, "from_low_reference": 0.112343 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.381, "fair_value_reference": 48.533984, "structural_low": 39.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.001349, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.035492, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.067915, "worst_return": -0.077449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082059, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052688, "worst_return": -0.129623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.079333, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.128003, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092806, "worst_return": -0.207597, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077449, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00907, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030631, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 42.549999, "volume": 14900, "typical_volume": 38755.0, "trend": 44.091902, "fair_value": 48.479919, "relative_strength": -19.737771, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.395235, "energy": 17.147983, "activity_lines": [ 43.027999, 42.547272, 42.282523, 42.798079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.150002, "volume": 11700, "typical_volume": 33380.0, "trend": 43.758333, "fair_value": 48.490372, "relative_strength": -20.026277, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.785722, "energy": 13.031925, "activity_lines": [ 42.714, 42.550545, 42.28419, 42.672796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.599998, "volume": 15800, "typical_volume": 31170.0, "trend": 43.542, "fair_value": 48.510449, "relative_strength": -16.229396, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.225382, "energy": 7.374751, "activity_lines": [ 42.948, 42.79709, 42.429619, 42.66258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.16, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 29265.0, "trend": 43.381, "fair_value": 48.533984, "relative_strength": -17.207532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.962034, "energy": 14.72379, "activity_lines": [ 43.329333, 43.10709, 42.620571, 42.702451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }