{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73fef95d-f7c6-4c4b-ae44-459ff5f1cd63", "symbol": "CBSUSE", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 52.409, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.588, "architecture_energy": 77.919, "architecture_maturity": 7.029, "architecture_confidence": 77.323, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.3, "rotation_up": 8.48, "upward_expansion": 18.05, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 77.82, "downward_expansion": 93.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.088133, 15.1564, 15.203571, 15.232292 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.082, "trend_reference": 15.2786, "distance_from_trend": -0.012868, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.769346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.704771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018738, "excess_performance": -0.18963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012868, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002694, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018738, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.382253, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2965, "relative_activity": 0.293694, "balance": 2.382253, "dry_up": 1.269049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006396, "annualized_volatility": 0.05006, "from_high_reference": -0.028472, "from_low_reference": 0.007751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.2786, "fair_value_reference": 14.769346, "structural_low": 14.966, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001044, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.018896, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.056853, "worst_return": -0.059172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007145, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.059544, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.085589, "worst_return": -0.099463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005097, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110185, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.035523, "worst_return": -0.126925, "sufficient": false }, { 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[ 15.3088, 15.280982, 15.27679, 15.296903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.28, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 15170.1, "trend": 15.3136, "fair_value": 14.735013, "relative_strength": -15.171637, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.075536, "energy": 13.908927, "activity_lines": [ 15.302, 15.282727, 15.274752, 15.294542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.158, "volume": 1192, "typical_volume": 13055.15, "trend": 15.3088, "fair_value": 14.741628, "relative_strength": -15.116945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.620383, "energy": 22.691804, "activity_lines": [ 15.257733, 15.262836, 15.262124, 15.284503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.162, "volume": 46375, "typical_volume": 15334.05, "trend": 15.304333, "fair_value": 14.748167, "relative_strength": -13.510138, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.88008, "energy": 51.690095, "activity_lines": [ 15.219067, 15.2448, 15.251476, 15.275032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.162, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14472.05, "trend": 15.299867, "fair_value": 14.755051, "relative_strength": -13.002123, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.176211, "energy": 64.76724, "activity_lines": [ 15.189067, 15.229127, 15.242419, 15.265849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.986, "volume": 1907, "typical_volume": 13469.95, "trend": 15.288267, "fair_value": 14.761615, "relative_strength": -14.177021, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.596797, "energy": 85.225107, "activity_lines": [ 15.110667, 15.1824, 15.218057, 15.2456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.082, "volume": 2965, "typical_volume": 10095.55, "trend": 15.2786, "fair_value": 14.769346, "relative_strength": -15.704771, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.587591, "energy": 77.918868, "activity_lines": [ 15.088133, 15.1564, 15.203571, 15.232292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }