{ "ticker": { "uuid": "740060f2-19ba-493c-a596-5f221b99e572", "symbol": "PBHC", "name": "Pathfinder Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.012, "architecture_energy": 44.751, "architecture_maturity": 54.011, "architecture_confidence": 64.158, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.29, "rotation_up": 53.08, "upward_expansion": 79.46, "deceleration": 67.91, "rotation_down": 22.7, "downward_expansion": 6.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.285971, 16.179248, 15.417205, 14.872475 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.5, "trend_reference": 14.302177, "distance_from_trend": 0.15367, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.138069, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.408365, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.281541, "excess_performance": 0.094088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15367, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043668, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167062, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162893, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004084, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187475, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.281541, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.764988, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21048, "relative_activity": 0.491099, "balance": 0.764988, "dry_up": 1.23553, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076244, "annualized_volatility": 0.271624, "from_high_reference": -0.045938, "from_low_reference": 0.378619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.302177, "fair_value_reference": 14.138069, "structural_low": 12.49, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.001054, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.213921, "worst_return": -0.075078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020581, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.019033, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.192147, "worst_return": -0.141764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06087, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.04022, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.160665, "worst_return": -0.189578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.363818, "energy": 80.46309, "activity_lines": [ 16.101096, 15.458352, 14.67875, 14.309112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.39, "volume": 124727, "typical_volume": 41878.4, "trend": 14.062496, "fair_value": 14.098207, "relative_strength": 3.106883, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.376849, "energy": 56.600494, "activity_lines": [ 16.205791, 15.723359, 14.894503, 14.464522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.9022, "volume": 45107, "typical_volume": 43359.7, "trend": 14.142711, "fair_value": 14.105449, "relative_strength": 1.89884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.120711, "energy": 46.517335, "activity_lines": [ 16.078972, 15.85604, 15.047817, 14.583213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.35, "volume": 20932, "typical_volume": 42900.9, "trend": 14.223723, "fair_value": 14.120623, "relative_strength": 4.389116, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.340091, "energy": 45.978598, "activity_lines": [ 16.15912, 16.02628, 15.232153, 14.725618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.5, "volume": 21048, "typical_volume": 42858.95, "trend": 14.302177, "fair_value": 14.138069, "relative_strength": 0.408365, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.011918, "energy": 44.751203, "activity_lines": [ 16.285971, 16.179248, 15.417205, 14.872475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }