{ "ticker": { "uuid": "740550db-1707-46f4-86be-1c373c4a24b0", "symbol": "000893", "name": "Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 49.251, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.523, "architecture_energy": 21.263, "architecture_maturity": 72.707, "architecture_confidence": 53.674, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.35, "rotation_up": 34.13, "upward_expansion": 20.86, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 22.33, "downward_expansion": 54.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.502, 45.735454, 46.945331, 49.653591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 48.23, "trend_reference": 52.379534, "distance_from_trend": -0.079221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.142026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.548711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.503574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139057, "excess_performance": -0.146457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079221, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.548711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005036, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020615, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77729082, "relative_activity": 1.216191, "balance": 0.859877, "dry_up": 1.4782, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125741, "annualized_volatility": 0.576298, "from_high_reference": -0.326208, "from_low_reference": 0.5928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.379534, "fair_value_reference": 31.142026, "structural_low": 38.080002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007771, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.029154, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.204453, "worst_return": -0.153927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009005, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.025096, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.329717, "worst_return": -0.162544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021387, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099787, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.272453, "worst_return": -0.170085, "sufficient": 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52.193867, "fair_value": 30.831449, "relative_strength": 0.24071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.749952, "energy": 41.249173, "activity_lines": [ 43.523333, 43.760938, 47.078864, 49.942283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.860001, "volume": 91419688, "typical_volume": 65544321.75, "trend": 52.370867, "fair_value": 31.006, "relative_strength": 13.074209, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.598872, "energy": 20.697928, "activity_lines": [ 46.451334, 45.124289, 47.143693, 49.920743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.23, "volume": 77729082, "typical_volume": 63911913.7, "trend": 52.379534, "fair_value": 31.142026, "relative_strength": -0.503574, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.522821, "energy": 21.263164, "activity_lines": [ 47.502, 45.735454, 46.945331, 49.653591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }