{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7406201f-d35f-4eb7-b76a-cc0ed02c0d28", "symbol": "QRET", "name": "Mackenzie Developed Markets Real Estate Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.611, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.094, "architecture_energy": 81.948, "architecture_maturity": 33.962, "architecture_confidence": 80.568, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 69.05, "upward_expansion": 95.08, "deceleration": 43.74, "rotation_down": 19.22, "downward_expansion": 19.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.826665, 127.115449, 125.26286, 123.901519 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 127.919998, "trend_reference": 122.27365, "distance_from_trend": 0.046178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 108.209783, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182148, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.604607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06833, "excess_performance": -0.052091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03138, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182148, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015249, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06833, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.632196, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208, "relative_activity": 0.24102, "balance": 1.632196, "dry_up": 0.060255, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011607, "annualized_volatility": 0.115473, "from_high_reference": -0.004978, "from_low_reference": 0.148903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.27365, "fair_value_reference": 108.209783, "structural_low": 115.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.008091, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.008158, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.071117, "worst_return": -0.054787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022843, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.024917, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.146419, "worst_return": -0.084756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035472, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051518, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.167831, "worst_return": -0.031894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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127.779999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 962.6, "trend": 121.42073, "fair_value": 107.75158, "relative_strength": -2.470167, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.697611, "energy": 89.27557, "activity_lines": [ 127.546666, 126.214884, 124.306465, 123.10309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.779999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 892.6, "trend": 121.903611, "fair_value": 107.981987, "relative_strength": -1.830439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.959651, "energy": 87.252548, "activity_lines": [ 127.779999, 126.705534, 124.801399, 123.513365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.919998, "volume": 208, "typical_volume": 863.0, "trend": 122.27365, "fair_value": 108.209783, "relative_strength": -4.604607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.094394, "energy": 81.948454, "activity_lines": [ 127.826665, 127.115449, 125.26286, 123.901519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }