{ "ticker": { "uuid": "740ef96b-e8f5-41c6-9d8a-aec5475ce321", "symbol": "CRI", "name": "Critica Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.283, "architecture_energy": 21.31, "architecture_maturity": 89.636, "architecture_confidence": 92.029, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.5, "rotation_up": 29.69, "upward_expansion": 18.11, "deceleration": 43.85, "rotation_down": 32.61, "downward_expansion": 68.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.020033, 0.019455, 0.020438, 0.021538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.023, "trend_reference": 0.023117, "distance_from_trend": -0.005047, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.018362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.744812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148148, "excess_performance": -0.211854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252575, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085046, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132593, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.98409, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32313183, "relative_activity": 2.442998, "balance": 0.98409, "dry_up": 1.048603, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093645, "annualized_volatility": 0.462563, "from_high_reference": -0.520833, "from_low_reference": 0.533333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.023117, "fair_value_reference": 0.018362, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.457143, "median_excess_return": -0.02349, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.129902, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.14309, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.214286, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07422, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.714286, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.583333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.458919, "energy": 76.238536, "activity_lines": [ 0.018733, 0.019727, 0.021343, 0.022581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0185, "volume": 12823710, "typical_volume": 15548829.45, "trend": 0.023817, "fair_value": 0.018253, "relative_strength": -24.65678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.579292, "energy": 67.728069, "activity_lines": [ 0.018633, 0.019327, 0.020952, 0.022222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0185, "volume": 3296864, "typical_volume": 14272127.2, "trend": 0.023533, "fair_value": 0.018282, "relative_strength": -24.523872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.827358, "energy": 55.169898, "activity_lines": [ 0.018567, 0.019027, 0.020602, 0.021878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0185, "volume": 7045132, "typical_volume": 13518376.1, "trend": 0.02325, "fair_value": 0.018304, "relative_strength": -26.351621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.668745, "energy": 51.672403, "activity_lines": [ 0.018567, 0.018791, 0.020293, 0.021554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.023, "volume": 32313183, "typical_volume": 13226856.85, "trend": 0.023117, "fair_value": 0.018362, "relative_strength": -11.744812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.282647, "energy": 21.310341, "activity_lines": [ 0.020033, 0.019455, 0.020438, 0.021538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }