{ "ticker": { "uuid": "741453cc-7792-4ad7-bb8b-05ba36d40f79", "symbol": "688079", "name": "Hangzhou Mdk Opto Electronics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.054, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.525, "architecture_energy": 32.52, "architecture_maturity": 47.747, "architecture_confidence": 50.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.28, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 16.31, "deceleration": 70.34, "rotation_down": 63.36, "downward_expansion": 41.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.299334, 19.027091, 20.135048, 18.925957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.280001, "trend_reference": 17.133333, "distance_from_trend": -0.049805, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.022628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.476962, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.562006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.338816, "excess_performance": 0.38202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049805, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.263117, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.476962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09562, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1589, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.338816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84729310, "relative_activity": 1.049044, "balance": 0.999305, "dry_up": 1.043732, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.375591, "annualized_volatility": 1.205227, "from_high_reference": -0.516914, "from_low_reference": 0.592955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.133333, "fair_value_reference": 11.022628, "structural_low": 11.48, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00389, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020624, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.324868, "worst_return": -0.10623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.139158, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.156661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188368, "worst_return": 0.089947, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.692684, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.72691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.144097, "worst_return": 0.24127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"activity_lines": [ 27.28, 25.368909, 21.394857, 19.060731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.35, "volume": 85548223, "typical_volume": 74235421.8, "trend": 16.659667, "fair_value": 10.925385, "relative_strength": 50.860062, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.962437, "energy": 46.229325, "activity_lines": [ 25.523333, 25.240727, 21.76319, 19.452516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.0, "volume": 76991864, "typical_volume": 76914083.05, "trend": 16.823667, "fair_value": 10.956218, "relative_strength": 13.833835, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.287702, "energy": 15.44002, "activity_lines": [ 22.233333, 23.820909, 21.481667, 19.409957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.98, "volume": 99183505, "typical_volume": 78317574.45, "trend": 16.920333, "fair_value": 10.975321, "relative_strength": -2.229402, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.835729, "energy": 19.862342, "activity_lines": [ 18.704667, 22.041454, 20.994048, 19.226495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.95, "volume": 76296326, "typical_volume": 78779984.85, "trend": 16.968, "fair_value": 10.985449, "relative_strength": -9.977131, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.02963, "energy": 34.937529, "activity_lines": [ 15.871333, 20.139273, 20.404429, 18.970344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.280001, "volume": 84729310, "typical_volume": 80768096.0, "trend": 17.133333, "fair_value": 11.022628, "relative_strength": 9.562006, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.525186, "energy": 32.520152, "activity_lines": [ 15.299334, 19.027091, 20.135048, 18.925957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }