{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7415e3b1-e7c5-4f9e-b034-b1914fa9c7aa", "symbol": "ISCF", "name": "ISHARES TRUST INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP EQUITY FACTOR", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.96, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.141, "architecture_energy": 63.444, "architecture_maturity": 34.394, "architecture_confidence": 77.578, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.33, "rotation_up": 68.39, "upward_expansion": 88.08, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 13.88, "downward_expansion": 12.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.496667, 44.09321, 43.880492, 43.575837 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.7175, "trend_reference": 43.337377, "distance_from_trend": 0.054921, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.302269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.315699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045766, "excess_performance": -0.079859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054921, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030555, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017634, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.216126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119250, "relative_activity": 0.460193, "balance": 2.216126, "dry_up": 0.523524, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025111, "annualized_volatility": 0.17531, "from_high_reference": -0.001012, "from_low_reference": 0.217301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.337377, "fair_value_reference": 34.302269, "structural_low": 39.662172, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.012652, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008361, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.058129, "worst_return": -0.073268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.018603, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.022061, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.106755, "worst_return": -0.134719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017149, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.051762, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.216667, "worst_return": -0.044857, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.540034, "energy": 14.992014, "activity_lines": [ 43.594, 43.613531, 43.466408, 43.297649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.7175, "volume": 121841, "typical_volume": 280835.65, "trend": 43.109922, "fair_value": 34.080108, "relative_strength": -2.351267, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.745521, "energy": 22.920981, "activity_lines": [ 43.6405, 43.625635, 43.534286, 43.342792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.22, "volume": 167102, "typical_volume": 272347.7, "trend": 43.215381, "fair_value": 34.185761, "relative_strength": -2.254897, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.615468, "energy": 31.332293, "activity_lines": [ 43.858667, 43.726076, 43.643799, 43.41441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.7175, "volume": 119250, "typical_volume": 259130.2, "trend": 43.337377, "fair_value": 34.302269, "relative_strength": -2.315699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.140718, "energy": 63.444453, "activity_lines": [ 44.496667, 44.09321, 43.880492, 43.575837 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }