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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 83.675, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.55, "architecture_energy": 20.775, "architecture_maturity": 56.446, "architecture_confidence": 71.223, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.44, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 14.48, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 28.33, "downward_expansion": 62.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.49047, 57.286149, 57.784394, 57.991668 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 57.6, "trend_reference": 58.214558, "distance_from_trend": -0.010557, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.467252, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.818905, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016562, "excess_performance": -0.142186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4811267, "relative_activity": 0.693056, "balance": 0.980114, "dry_up": 0.631999, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016787, "annualized_volatility": 0.072365, "from_high_reference": -0.032421, "from_low_reference": 0.04282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.214558, "fair_value_reference": 47.467252, 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"fair_value": 47.132518, "relative_strength": -8.955097, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.188964, "energy": 74.712752, "activity_lines": [ 56.778634, 57.28974, 57.913407, 58.09962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.974751, "volume": 3889123, "typical_volume": 7243854.2, "trend": 58.255474, "fair_value": 47.243943, "relative_strength": -6.633869, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.656414, "energy": 44.964866, "activity_lines": [ 57.159336, 57.312727, 57.894403, 58.081274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.498246, "volume": 4430691, "typical_volume": 7143562.15, "trend": 58.231677, "fair_value": 47.355617, "relative_strength": -8.139617, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.522514, "energy": 30.262102, "activity_lines": [ 57.320219, 57.272262, 57.832332, 58.032421 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.6, "volume": 4811267, "typical_volume": 6942101.6, "trend": 58.214558, "fair_value": 47.467252, "relative_strength": -10.818905, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.55008, "energy": 20.775377, "activity_lines": [ 57.49047, 57.286149, 57.784394, 57.991668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }