{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74245ef9-ebf9-4d33-968f-db71e3050fb5", "symbol": "EGY", "name": "Vaalco Energy Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.046, "architecture_energy": 7.873, "architecture_maturity": 14.811, "architecture_confidence": 73.411, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.06, "rotation_up": 41.21, "upward_expansion": 31.53, "deceleration": 42.7, "rotation_down": 21.11, "downward_expansion": 20.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.438, 5.353455, 5.442221, 5.484827 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.55, "trend_reference": 5.411553, "distance_from_trend": 0.025584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.466931, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.405153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.173292, "excess_performance": 0.047667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025584, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125573, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064052, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121017, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173292, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.241561, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6806068, "relative_activity": 0.992057, "balance": 2.241561, "dry_up": 0.856069, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094632, "annualized_volatility": 0.497251, "from_high_reference": -0.165083, "from_low_reference": 0.687738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.411553, "fair_value_reference": 4.466931, "structural_low": 4.569021, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.049141, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003723, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.592905, "worst_return": -0.226115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.038009, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.004017, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.536764, "worst_return": -0.191878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.18887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.10729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.330063, "worst_return": -0.27635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.265121, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.077621, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.566129, "worst_return": -0.212871, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129568, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.275622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094788, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031331, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075951, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014245, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 7441417.15, "trend": 5.149823, "fair_value": 4.42515, "relative_strength": 5.116453, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.146257, "energy": 19.768103, "activity_lines": [ 5.193333, 5.293822, 5.509921, 5.437541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.3, "volume": 5490856, "typical_volume": 7493437.75, "trend": 5.214748, "fair_value": 4.43612, "relative_strength": 7.244844, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.385008, "energy": 23.42889, "activity_lines": [ 5.208, 5.276279, 5.481488, 5.44723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.55, "volume": 5617339, "typical_volume": 7360342.15, "trend": 5.287029, "fair_value": 4.448147, "relative_strength": 12.358508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.773416, "energy": 12.991079, "activity_lines": [ 5.316667, 5.308545, 5.475885, 5.468859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.33, "volume": 5578200, "typical_volume": 7126359.5, "trend": 5.345462, "fair_value": 4.458765, "relative_strength": 6.245488, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.04803, "energy": 5.470734, "activity_lines": [ 5.354, 5.307455, 5.448572, 5.471631 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.55, "volume": 6806068, "typical_volume": 6860560.4, "trend": 5.411553, "fair_value": 4.466931, "relative_strength": 6.405153, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.046376, "energy": 7.873275, "activity_lines": [ 5.438, 5.353455, 5.442221, 5.484827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }