{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74276b5c-b040-4356-aee1-8493753cf8d1", "symbol": "S61", "name": "SBS Transit Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.978, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.891, "architecture_energy": 22.455, "architecture_maturity": 60.213, "architecture_confidence": 77.318, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.67, "rotation_up": 21.91, "upward_expansion": 50.28, "deceleration": 91.11, "rotation_down": 32.97, "downward_expansion": 22.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.622, 3.657636, 3.643174, 3.597793 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.62, "trend_reference": 3.48024, "distance_from_trend": 0.040158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.46736, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.467155, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.245101, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.22789, "excess_performance": 0.073055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.467155, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.973206, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 195400, "relative_activity": 0.292052, "balance": 0.973206, "dry_up": 0.577975, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026137, "annualized_volatility": 0.234743, "from_high_reference": -0.052356, "from_low_reference": 0.295226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.48024, "fair_value_reference": 2.46736, "structural_low": 2.948146, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.004996, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.013913, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.120332, "worst_return": -0.044619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018633, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093877, "worst_return": -0.015326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0737, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.062488, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.273292, "worst_return": -0.047106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.092997, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.014821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095819, "worst_return": 0.090176, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034221, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063745, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036901, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003937, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008163, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.329563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.170041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091691, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032345, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.944247, "volume": 117100, "typical_volume": 73555.0, "trend": 1.986234, "fair_value": 2.061549, "relative_strength": 0.466186, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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3.702667, 3.678364, 3.647404, 3.563517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.62, "volume": 459600, "typical_volume": 740820.0, "trend": 3.433444, "fair_value": 2.446068, "relative_strength": -3.54414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.400076, "energy": 31.329141, "activity_lines": [ 3.668, 3.675818, 3.647622, 3.577173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.59, "volume": 528600, "typical_volume": 705215.0, "trend": 3.456943, "fair_value": 2.456521, "relative_strength": -4.957854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.614574, "energy": 19.402286, "activity_lines": [ 3.636, 3.664909, 3.644274, 3.587273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.62, "volume": 195400, "typical_volume": 669060.0, "trend": 3.48024, "fair_value": 2.46736, "relative_strength": -5.245101, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.891393, "energy": 22.455343, "activity_lines": [ 3.622, 3.657636, 3.643174, 3.597793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }