{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7428f187-16dc-4a19-822f-55b11a8c4f83", "symbol": "MTUM", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.79, "architecture_energy": 24.517, "architecture_maturity": 66.073, "architecture_confidence": 95.411, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.95, "rotation_up": 23.22, "upward_expansion": 56.68, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 30.54, "downward_expansion": 20.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 5321.266667, 5417.537802, 5317.714258, 5115.89211 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5301.0, "trend_reference": 4870.390885, "distance_from_trend": 0.088414, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3964.038867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.394005, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.23409, "excess_performance": 0.288757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088414, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100637, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09394, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.23409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 40.854916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1256, "relative_activity": 0.179354, "balance": 40.854916, "dry_up": 0.120307, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058079, "annualized_volatility": 0.333716, "from_high_reference": -0.094156, "from_low_reference": 0.270614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4870.390885, "fair_value_reference": 3964.038867, "structural_low": 4172.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007541, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07811, "worst_return": -0.12372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045683, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.06016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184012, "worst_return": -0.099628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.103791, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.0082, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.367128, "worst_return": -0.28522, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004543, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031734, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038959, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018223, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040756, 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"activity_lines": [ 5459.027995, 5510.085618, 5279.227023, 5062.821919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5185.0, "volume": 1792, "typical_volume": 6941.2, "trend": 4845.021663, "fair_value": 3945.710166, "relative_strength": 7.046388, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.468231, "energy": 28.668428, "activity_lines": [ 5352.647331, 5453.442827, 5294.90768, 5086.474153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5301.0, "volume": 1256, "typical_volume": 7002.9, "trend": 4870.390885, "fair_value": 3964.038867, "relative_strength": 9.394005, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.790292, "energy": 24.517448, "activity_lines": [ 5321.266667, 5417.537802, 5317.714258, 5115.89211 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }