{ "ticker": { "uuid": "742a0ccc-f2ca-4329-b62e-545c639a28a1", "symbol": "INEA", "name": "Fonciere Inea S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.934, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.139, "architecture_energy": 20.718, "architecture_maturity": 22.887, "architecture_confidence": 52.949, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.34, "rotation_up": 39.07, "upward_expansion": 67.94, "deceleration": 65.39, "rotation_down": 21.82, "downward_expansion": 5.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.940001, 32.890909, 32.855113, 32.674661 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.700001, "trend_reference": 32.387246, "distance_from_trend": 0.009657, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.398438, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112304, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.931549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039049, "excess_performance": -0.014262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009657, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02352, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006069, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039049, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.901368, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2378, "relative_activity": 1.257968, "balance": 5.901368, "dry_up": 0.684265, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030702, "annualized_volatility": 0.124743, "from_high_reference": -0.113821, "from_low_reference": 0.169791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.387246, "fair_value_reference": 29.398438, "structural_low": 30.915703, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015418, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.022146, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.106024, "worst_return": -0.067647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050023, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001934, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.10574, "worst_return": -0.090116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011765, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.016394, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.141809, "worst_return": -0.020417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054061, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052326, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012618, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.70952, "energy": 16.549021, "activity_lines": [ 32.76, 32.91979, 32.67734, 32.440011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.0, "volume": 983, "typical_volume": 2072.4, "trend": 32.150193, "fair_value": 29.310865, "relative_strength": 1.929716, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.544615, "energy": 16.3974, "activity_lines": [ 32.82, 32.944343, 32.726604, 32.499718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.599998, "volume": 684, "typical_volume": 1976.6, "trend": 32.206337, "fair_value": 29.327768, "relative_strength": 0.764658, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.279218, "energy": 15.577019, "activity_lines": [ 32.74, 32.885199, 32.732255, 32.528738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.200001, "volume": 1778, "typical_volume": 1906.2, "trend": 32.285565, "fair_value": 29.351045, "relative_strength": 2.259027, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.960486, "energy": 18.539806, "activity_lines": [ 32.886667, 32.928084, 32.794081, 32.592845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.200001, "volume": 334, "typical_volume": 1858.75, "trend": 32.346282, "fair_value": 29.374828, "relative_strength": 0.779631, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.042668, "energy": 27.046123, "activity_lines": [ 33.006667, 32.956364, 32.85076, 32.651841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.700001, "volume": 2378, "typical_volume": 1890.35, "trend": 32.387246, "fair_value": 29.398438, "relative_strength": -2.931549, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.138882, "energy": 20.718066, "activity_lines": [ 32.940001, 32.890909, 32.855113, 32.674661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }