{ "ticker": { "uuid": "742af3ec-5341-4cd8-bfe4-44a10942d7db", "symbol": "1536", "name": "Yuk Wing Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.056, "architecture_energy": 40.333, "architecture_maturity": 82.127, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.2, "rotation_up": 70.38, "upward_expansion": 35.93, "deceleration": 39.91, "rotation_down": 17.37, "downward_expansion": 27.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.259933, 0.216436, 0.2185, 0.222473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.32, "trend_reference": 0.228633, "distance_from_trend": 0.399621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.143032, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.237261, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 56.798583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.285141, "excess_performance": 0.324409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.399621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.237261, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214725, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.567986, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034966, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.249711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18754000, "relative_activity": 3.539359, "balance": 2.249711, "dry_up": 3.270236, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150481, "annualized_volatility": 1.007888, "from_high_reference": -0.085714, "from_low_reference": 1.644628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.228633, "fair_value_reference": 0.143032, "structural_low": 0.121, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.027106, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": 0.034863, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.37037, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.003326, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.584906, "worst_return": -0.292308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.153423, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.878788, "worst_return": -0.327434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.284483, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.540881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -32.629566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.942948, "energy": 81.733929, "activity_lines": [ 0.141067, 0.171836, 0.204295, 0.214011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.192, "volume": 14940000, "typical_volume": 2734100.0, "trend": 0.2216, "fair_value": 0.140333, "relative_strength": -3.722317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.486206, "energy": 56.054138, "activity_lines": [ 0.157, 0.169945, 0.201733, 0.212196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.26, "volume": 23912000, "typical_volume": 3924900.0, "trend": 0.224467, "fair_value": 0.141199, "relative_strength": 32.309341, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.989825, "energy": 15.426036, "activity_lines": [ 0.192933, 0.181927, 0.20591, 0.214673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.25, "volume": 11706000, "typical_volume": 4453400.0, "trend": 0.224633, "fair_value": 0.141878, "relative_strength": 21.984085, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.459854, "energy": 19.657949, "activity_lines": [ 0.2182, 0.192455, 0.208943, 0.21632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 0.32, "volume": 18754000, "typical_volume": 5298700.0, "trend": 0.228633, "fair_value": 0.143032, "relative_strength": 56.798583, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.056243, "energy": 40.332917, "activity_lines": [ 0.259933, 0.216436, 0.2185, 0.222473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }