{ "ticker": { "uuid": "742eb1af-9dcd-4d9f-8395-2162bcd1a26d", "symbol": "TUR", "name": "ISHARES MSCI TURKEY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.126, "architecture_energy": 35.417, "architecture_maturity": 7.764, "architecture_confidence": 94.418, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.6, "rotation_up": 16.0, "upward_expansion": 6.28, "deceleration": 43.17, "rotation_down": 51.58, "downward_expansion": 79.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.684667, 38.936007, 39.378854, 39.506061 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.75, "trend_reference": 39.62352, "distance_from_trend": -0.022045, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.3389, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.362123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039854, "excess_performance": -0.227308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022045, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045505, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 502603, "relative_activity": 0.449657, "balance": 0.393311, "dry_up": 0.402664, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048748, "annualized_volatility": 0.258201, "from_high_reference": -0.108405, "from_low_reference": 0.248999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.62352, "fair_value_reference": 35.3389, "structural_low": 35.970815, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.037733, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.007802, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.088277, "worst_return": -0.163276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044128, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.29854, "worst_return": -0.141462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.145407, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.083068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232988, "worst_return": 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38.757005, "fair_value": 35.025146, "relative_strength": -5.804095, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.912894, "energy": 9.472997, "activity_lines": [ 39.323705, 39.554701, 39.861959, 39.631257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.34, "volume": 504606, "typical_volume": 1683054.25, "trend": 38.965059, "fair_value": 35.097249, "relative_strength": -6.179072, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.282679, "energy": 10.190957, "activity_lines": [ 39.467357, 39.408579, 39.811095, 39.668869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.94, "volume": 550239, "typical_volume": 1614225.75, "trend": 39.127828, "fair_value": 35.158731, "relative_strength": -8.633735, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.647584, "energy": 10.267649, "activity_lines": [ 39.371649, 39.23987, 39.73348, 39.667253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.93, "volume": 305500, "typical_volume": 1509639.4, "trend": 39.277196, "fair_value": 35.220209, "relative_strength": -4.638777, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.840943, "energy": 7.378518, "activity_lines": [ 39.186, 39.126576, 39.66548, 39.654489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.16, "volume": 679247, "typical_volume": 1287007.65, "trend": 39.437524, "fair_value": 35.270896, "relative_strength": -2.476553, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.667498, "energy": 15.561692, "activity_lines": [ 39.081333, 39.129944, 39.625197, 39.646928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.06, "volume": 312958, "typical_volume": 1150634.6, "trend": 39.555915, "fair_value": 35.306895, "relative_strength": -5.58552, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.066296, "energy": 31.497108, "activity_lines": [ 38.73, 38.962829, 39.468826, 39.558056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.75, "volume": 502603, "typical_volume": 1117746.95, "trend": 39.62352, "fair_value": 35.3389, "relative_strength": -8.362123, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.126447, "energy": 35.416815, "activity_lines": [ 38.684667, 38.936007, 39.378854, 39.506061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }