{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7432b539-d224-4ba3-bbfa-91bdc83d9f95", "symbol": "TIL", "name": "Instil Bio Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.358, "architecture_energy": 67.502, "architecture_maturity": 81.1, "architecture_confidence": 94.925, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.67, "rotation_up": 13.56, "upward_expansion": 15.43, "deceleration": 37.88, "rotation_down": 63.17, "downward_expansion": 86.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.297333, 7.420727, 7.665786, 7.823968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.41, "trend_reference": 7.9145, "distance_from_trend": -0.063744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.922906, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.534633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.324181, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045103, "excess_performance": -0.232557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152487, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.534633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.473242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129126, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46519, "relative_activity": 0.444731, "balance": 0.522311, "dry_up": 0.541112, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056277, "annualized_volatility": 0.361767, "from_high_reference": -0.780983, "from_low_reference": 0.306878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.9145, "fair_value_reference": 15.922906, "structural_low": 7.0221, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.042131, "positive_rate": 0.290323, "directional_follow_through": 0.709677, "median_excess_return": -0.061448, "regime_survival": 0.935484, "best_return": 0.861188, "worst_return": -0.654551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.128686, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.282113, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.115268, "worst_return": -0.897561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.302013, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.456514, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.393029, "worst_return": -0.877869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.283878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220408, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.328951, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.636068, "energy": 63.3969, "activity_lines": [ 7.421333, 7.565091, 7.790405, 7.915495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.12, "volume": 46553, "typical_volume": 107168.0, "trend": 7.905167, "fair_value": 15.942201, "relative_strength": -48.764644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.847702, "energy": 71.977437, "activity_lines": [ 7.300667, 7.456909, 7.711571, 7.855914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.41, "volume": 46519, "typical_volume": 104600.35, "trend": 7.9145, "fair_value": 15.922906, "relative_strength": -47.324181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.358071, "energy": 67.501976, "activity_lines": [ 7.297333, 7.420727, 7.665786, 7.823968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }