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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.429, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.659, "architecture_energy": 96.77, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.536, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.4, "rotation_up": 88.58, "upward_expansion": 99.98, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 9.21, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.138889, 50.077224, 50.001572, 49.928654 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 50.200001, "trend_reference": 49.812161, "distance_from_trend": 0.007786, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.558985, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.351332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013899, "excess_performance": 0.016376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007786, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005628, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002873, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 23.577446, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1841696, "relative_activity": 1.238332, "balance": 23.577446, "dry_up": 1.091241, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001099, "annualized_volatility": 0.007173, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.032992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.812161, "fair_value_reference": 47.558985, "structural_low": 49.501984, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 66, "median_return": 0.002947, "positive_rate": 0.954545, "directional_follow_through": 0.954545, "median_excess_return": -0.004971, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003802, "worst_return": -0.000657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.00967, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00727, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.01159, "worst_return": 0.000505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018656, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021585, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.022908, "worst_return": 0.001415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -3.640918, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.916999, "energy": 92.676985, "activity_lines": [ 50.052142, 50.01538, 49.949523, 49.876461 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 50.150002, "volume": 1798175, "typical_volume": 1476416.4, "trend": 49.784051, "fair_value": 47.52294, "relative_strength": -2.016911, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.953141, "energy": 95.469681, "activity_lines": [ 50.094464, 50.0438, 49.974226, 49.901819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 50.200001, "volume": 1841696, "typical_volume": 1487239.55, "trend": 49.812161, "fair_value": 47.558985, "relative_strength": -1.351332, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.658815, "energy": 96.770106, "activity_lines": [ 50.138889, 50.077224, 50.001572, 49.928654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }