{ "ticker": { "uuid": "743676d7-855a-43a1-8fc1-5773e184bca9", "symbol": "CERA", "name": "Cera Sanitaryware Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 76.293, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.482, "architecture_energy": 27.813, "architecture_maturity": 62.84, "architecture_confidence": 87.436, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.5, "rotation_up": 28.19, "upward_expansion": 61.78, "deceleration": 91.1, "rotation_down": 27.18, "downward_expansion": 16.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 6082.966667, 6140.397301, 5953.543583, 5718.892796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6062.0, "trend_reference": 5453.095654, "distance_from_trend": 0.111662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6825.496698, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11186, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.43783, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173192, "excess_performance": 0.216901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111662, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056736, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.084378, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173192, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81660, "relative_activity": 1.237894, "balance": 0.462622, "dry_up": 0.863324, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063783, "annualized_volatility": 0.304476, "from_high_reference": -0.081515, "from_low_reference": 0.358858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5453.095654, "fair_value_reference": 6825.496698, "structural_low": 4461.100098, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012295, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000833, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.25192, "worst_return": -0.0934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026818, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.057323, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.16945, "worst_return": -0.122069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052809, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193757, "worst_return": -0.322753, "sufficient": true 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-0.191046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038903, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": 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"volume": 61801, "typical_volume": 70058.0, "trend": 5421.745654, "fair_value": 6839.778655, "relative_strength": 10.222684, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.102648, "energy": 34.927807, "activity_lines": [ 6121.151107, 6140.09494, 5913.678678, 5677.586064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6062.0, "volume": 81660, "typical_volume": 65966.85, "trend": 5453.095654, "fair_value": 6825.496698, "relative_strength": 8.43783, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.481838, "energy": 27.812546, "activity_lines": [ 6082.966667, 6140.397301, 5953.543583, 5718.892796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }