{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7436d2a6-5aea-4b05-bc38-87c3c270608c", "symbol": "ROXO34", "name": "Nu Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.66, "architecture_energy": 13.556, "architecture_maturity": 31.197, "architecture_confidence": 62.085, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.59, "rotation_up": 31.95, "upward_expansion": 30.09, "deceleration": 49.51, "rotation_down": 18.08, "downward_expansion": 40.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.762667, 11.590182, 11.425524, 11.727828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.6, "trend_reference": 12.423333, "distance_from_trend": -0.066273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.234808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.006529, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22821, "excess_performance": -0.171162, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090399, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019483, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117278, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37409046, "relative_activity": 1.36974, "balance": 0.748434, "dry_up": 1.114227, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070292, "annualized_volatility": 0.340942, "from_high_reference": -0.29994, "from_low_reference": 0.16349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.423333, "fair_value_reference": 11.234808, "structural_low": 9.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053897, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035283, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.179805, "worst_return": -0.136505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.035918, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.015471, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.188823, "worst_return": -0.044462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.085079, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.130408, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.248942, "worst_return": -0.078783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.150546, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.303716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150546, "worst_return": 0.150546, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.177067, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119617, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096985, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178919, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.03979, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023501, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039024, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.88338, "energy": 22.713656, "activity_lines": [ 11.669333, 11.364, 11.380905, 11.829634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.05, "volume": 27954833, "typical_volume": 26627618.6, "trend": 12.558, "fair_value": 11.200705, "relative_strength": -15.757573, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.931204, "energy": 14.424986, "activity_lines": [ 11.816667, 11.529455, 11.423952, 11.789634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.6, "volume": 37409046, "typical_volume": 27311063.9, "trend": 12.423333, "fair_value": 11.234808, "relative_strength": -16.006529, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.659584, "energy": 13.555516, "activity_lines": [ 11.762667, 11.590182, 11.425524, 11.727828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }