{ "ticker": { "uuid": "743d8127-796a-4e6b-99b7-521542f96353", "symbol": "4738", "name": "Tatung Fine Chemicals Co.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.658, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.155, "architecture_energy": 42.176, "architecture_maturity": 8.125, "architecture_confidence": 69.856, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.11, "rotation_up": 18.79, "upward_expansion": 24.03, "deceleration": 50.45, "rotation_down": 59.25, "downward_expansion": 53.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.525333, 6.695455, 7.285429, 7.248 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.89, "trend_reference": 7.078, "distance_from_trend": -0.026561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.454551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.714274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068217, "excess_performance": -0.373155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068217, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.427015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 601050, "relative_activity": 0.142791, "balance": 0.427015, "dry_up": 0.158497, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14525, "annualized_volatility": 0.991663, "from_high_reference": -0.651139, "from_low_reference": 0.587558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.078, "fair_value_reference": 6.454551, "structural_low": 4.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040323, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009756, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.036234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096886, "worst_return": -0.11129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105691, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.032795, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122837, "worst_return": -0.16129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.151563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.23301, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11129, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 5.78, "volume": 209905, "typical_volume": 456622.25, "trend": 6.155, "fair_value": 6.529551, "relative_strength": -10.650398, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.383588, "energy": 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"mixed", "direction": -14.020396, "energy": 13.268999, "activity_lines": [ 6.996667, 7.328364, 7.667, 7.395032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.5, "volume": 645543, "typical_volume": 4433301.4, "trend": 7.027667, "fair_value": 6.446667, "relative_strength": -27.925907, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.248008, "energy": 32.859425, "activity_lines": [ 6.811333, 7.124909, 7.582143, 7.361957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.2, "volume": 1104645, "typical_volume": 4413000.6, "trend": 7.033667, "fair_value": 6.446667, "relative_strength": -29.902012, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.400567, "energy": 43.323186, "activity_lines": [ 6.572667, 6.905091, 7.465, 7.308559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 317401, "typical_volume": 4359957.2, "trend": 7.045, "fair_value": 6.447692, "relative_strength": -30.599269, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.718357, "energy": 47.568957, "activity_lines": [ 6.417333, 6.727091, 7.347, 7.258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.89, "volume": 601050, "typical_volume": 4209294.1, "trend": 7.078, "fair_value": 6.454551, "relative_strength": -25.714274, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.155402, "energy": 42.175684, "activity_lines": [ 6.525333, 6.695455, 7.285429, 7.248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }