{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7441dff8-09c0-465b-8ed3-4f11349e83ba", "symbol": "SBS", "name": "Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo SABESP ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.483, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.15, "architecture_energy": 36.014, "architecture_maturity": 14.238, "architecture_confidence": 63.608, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.57, "rotation_up": 25.37, "upward_expansion": 15.48, "deceleration": 47.05, "rotation_down": 52.19, "downward_expansion": 50.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.516, 5.592182, 5.722971, 5.783726 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.31, "trend_reference": 5.759069, "distance_from_trend": -0.077976, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.714482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.038816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030802, "excess_performance": -0.156427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077976, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045012, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.42954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.428688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.355397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26374037, "relative_activity": 1.20935, "balance": 0.355397, "dry_up": 1.300734, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 9 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073474, "annualized_volatility": 0.363226, "from_high_reference": -0.258069, "from_low_reference": 0.404507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.759069, "fair_value_reference": 3.714482, "structural_low": 5.21, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.089844, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.036148, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.222832, "worst_return": -0.081403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.170748, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.127229, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.666144, "worst_return": -0.118146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.167008, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.134875, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.480502, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134658, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.331749, "energy": 17.70268, "activity_lines": [ 5.775333, 5.668727, 5.868551, 5.829197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.75, "volume": 22647110, "typical_volume": 18680906.9, "trend": 5.69633, "fair_value": 3.649101, "relative_strength": 2.327784, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.23345, "energy": 15.328485, "activity_lines": [ 5.804667, 5.679455, 5.852724, 5.835049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.61, "volume": 27027353, "typical_volume": 19567202.05, "trend": 5.724415, "fair_value": 3.671286, "relative_strength": -0.032142, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.599247, "energy": 12.312774, "activity_lines": [ 5.768, 5.675636, 5.824561, 5.82948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.45, "volume": 37419387, "typical_volume": 21005409.65, "trend": 5.74477, "fair_value": 3.693586, "relative_strength": -4.251003, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.120306, "energy": 11.091566, "activity_lines": [ 5.654, 5.644727, 5.780506, 5.811775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.31, "volume": 26374037, "typical_volume": 21808433.15, "trend": 5.759069, "fair_value": 3.714482, "relative_strength": -10.038816, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.15021, "energy": 36.013914, "activity_lines": [ 5.516, 5.592182, 5.722971, 5.783726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }