{ "ticker": { "uuid": "744af210-646f-4344-b500-d1c57f556d3d", "symbol": "GUARD", "name": "Guard Therapeutics International AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.008, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.656, "architecture_energy": 5.288, "architecture_maturity": 24.334, "architecture_confidence": 37.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.82, "rotation_up": 22.66, "upward_expansion": 24.69, "deceleration": 67.52, "rotation_down": 34.92, "downward_expansion": 24.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.501467, 1.539782, 1.474824, 1.468888 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.386, "trend_reference": 1.530333, "distance_from_trend": -0.094315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.964494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.922848, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -80.597056, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.221348, "excess_performance": -0.282843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032869, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.922848, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.805971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.172805, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77532, "relative_activity": 0.583647, "balance": 2.172805, "dry_up": 0.585743, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206127, "annualized_volatility": 0.715341, "from_high_reference": -0.948667, "from_low_reference": 0.573212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.530333, "fair_value_reference": 17.964494, "structural_low": 0.881, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.006803, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006599, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.645729, "worst_return": -0.168539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.017422, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048222, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.390434, "worst_return": -0.206349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.215426, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.117825, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.280899, "worst_return": -0.877642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.402727, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.349289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.091667, "worst_return": -0.910112, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.39823, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207792, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153509, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036036, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.56, "volume": 34870, "typical_volume": 131025.4, "trend": 1.5182, "fair_value": 18.126071, "relative_strength": -82.097464, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.756538, "energy": 32.356128, "activity_lines": [ 1.5916, 1.538509, 1.435714, 1.470495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.65, "volume": 60029, "typical_volume": 128823.25, "trend": 1.530033, "fair_value": 18.095142, "relative_strength": -79.831301, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.090751, "energy": 31.182979, "activity_lines": [ 1.609467, 1.5696, 1.457233, 1.478998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 49846, "typical_volume": 128948.75, "trend": 1.533367, "fair_value": 18.048026, "relative_strength": -80.945754, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.168203, "energy": 11.616823, "activity_lines": [ 1.573333, 1.565018, 1.464562, 1.47706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.558, "volume": 123835, "typical_volume": 130762.8, "trend": 1.5373, "fair_value": 18.007533, "relative_strength": -79.263637, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.209806, "energy": 5.415054, "activity_lines": [ 1.56, 1.570036, 1.47789, 1.478649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.386, "volume": 77532, "typical_volume": 132840.6, "trend": 1.530333, "fair_value": 17.964494, "relative_strength": -80.597056, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.656049, "energy": 5.288438, "activity_lines": [ 1.501467, 1.539782, 1.474824, 1.468888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }