{ "ticker": { "uuid": "744d334b-9217-452b-8c5f-bef0d26a30e1", "symbol": "3522", "name": "Toplus Global Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.788, "architecture_energy": 41.232, "architecture_maturity": 20.074, "architecture_confidence": 82.916, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.77, "rotation_up": 13.11, "upward_expansion": 5.27, "deceleration": 45.13, "rotation_down": 60.53, "downward_expansion": 78.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.996667, 12.385455, 12.419048, 12.674839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.65, "trend_reference": 13.328333, "distance_from_trend": -0.125922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.524674, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.335223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.806424, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.238562, "excess_performance": -0.679934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125922, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.335223, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001545, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.291376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 473684, "relative_activity": 0.524424, "balance": 1.291376, "dry_up": 0.529533, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11654, "annualized_volatility": 0.389303, "from_high_reference": -0.405612, "from_low_reference": 0.04955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.328333, "fair_value_reference": 17.524674, "structural_low": 11.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009479, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.02077, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.194986, "worst_return": -0.155172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.052402, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.003926, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.556075, "worst_return": -0.331897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112984, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.1665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.584112, "worst_return": -0.439655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024457, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04349, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.873123, "worst_return": -0.332273, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005747, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193925, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.201049, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051724, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.275434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052288, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096899, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 16.152996, "volume": 423931, "typical_volume": 1583295.5, "trend": 14.002441, "fair_value": 16.341603, "relative_strength": 19.406629, "stage": 2, "regime": 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12.1, "volume": 852162, "typical_volume": 945449.05, "trend": 13.762212, "fair_value": 17.585109, "relative_strength": -38.518611, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.390976, "energy": 23.048197, "activity_lines": [ 12.593333, 12.666364, 12.584048, 12.922328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.8, "volume": 223301, "typical_volume": 908141.5, "trend": 13.523879, "fair_value": 17.556899, "relative_strength": -40.792348, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.712943, "energy": 27.627143, "activity_lines": [ 12.226667, 12.54, 12.505714, 12.795734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.65, "volume": 473684, "typical_volume": 903246.95, "trend": 13.328333, "fair_value": 17.524674, "relative_strength": -42.806424, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.788103, "energy": 41.231911, "activity_lines": [ 11.996667, 12.385455, 12.419048, 12.674839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }