{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7459ab66-5073-4664-9632-fe652cb72989",
    "symbol": "JREC",
    "name": "JPM China A Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - USD (acc)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 59.103,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 29.215,
    "architecture_energy": 26.997,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.005,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.351,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.5,
        "rotation_up": 27.18,
        "upward_expansion": 59.22,
        "deceleration": 85.5,
        "rotation_down": 42.28,
        "downward_expansion": 22.89
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        23.201333,
        23.415727,
        23.336667,
        23.03557
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 23.49,
    "trend_reference": 22.6395,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.037567,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 18.647032,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259718,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.821911,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.09536,
    "excess_performance": -0.075532,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037567,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041423,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.259718,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013093,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068219,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.081835,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.09536,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.789053,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 163,
      "relative_activity": 0.106106,
      "balance": 3.789053,
      "dry_up": 0.442976,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.027393,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.163477,
      "from_high_reference": -0.035318,
      "from_low_reference": 0.302684
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 22.6395,
      "fair_value_reference": 18.647032,
      "structural_low": 21.004999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.008175,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009572,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.065562,
        "worst_return": -0.044512,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.044025,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.099839,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.117415,
        "worst_return": -0.131771,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.104216,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.047948,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.135511,
        "worst_return": -0.082802,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.00318,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.204198,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.00318,
        "worst_return": 0.00318,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.050805,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.061311,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.029699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.044949,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012497,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.056822,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.079672,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074544,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.019701,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023641,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.004683,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "return": 0.060219,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.023084,
        "active": true
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "fair_value": 18.192019,
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 21.811,
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        "relative_strength": -0.695872,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 18.434635,
        "relative_strength": 1.453551,
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        "energy": 74.551144,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 632,
        "typical_volume": 1650.4,
        "trend": 22.273333,
        "fair_value": 18.476647,
        "relative_strength": -2.927625,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 399,
        "typical_volume": 1647.85,
        "trend": 22.393667,
        "fair_value": 18.519269,
        "relative_strength": -2.30087,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.444207,
        "energy": 83.438975,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.043334,
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          22.896344
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 22.42,
        "volume": 2128,
        "typical_volume": 1743.0,
        "trend": 22.4565,
        "fair_value": 18.55141,
        "relative_strength": -7.903654,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.845598,
        "energy": 35.646645,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.544667,
          23.568364,
          23.240357,
          22.898043
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 23.254999,
        "volume": 331,
        "typical_volume": 1720.1,
        "trend": 22.531667,
        "fair_value": 18.584096,
        "relative_strength": -4.355665,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.900483,
        "energy": 25.030816,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.382666,
          23.518273,
          23.279191,
          22.949559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 22.959999,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 1695.5,
        "trend": 22.585167,
        "fair_value": 18.61366,
        "relative_strength": -6.213312,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.293218,
        "energy": 24.918414,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.157333,
          23.415182,
          23.283952,
          22.977194
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.49,
        "volume": 163,
        "typical_volume": 1536.2,
        "trend": 22.6395,
        "fair_value": 18.647032,
        "relative_strength": -6.821911,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.214651,
        "energy": 26.996834,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.201333,
          23.415727,
          23.336667,
          23.03557
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}