{ "ticker": { "uuid": "745b4df8-7d4e-45ba-b873-07f967422996", "symbol": "FINX", "name": "GLOBAL X FINTECH ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.698, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.048, "architecture_energy": 25.357, "architecture_maturity": 26.964, "architecture_confidence": 41.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.4, "rotation_up": 46.91, "upward_expansion": 51.13, "deceleration": 30.01, "rotation_down": 24.18, "downward_expansion": 11.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.575887, 25.367055, 25.194931, 25.008788 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.0236, "trend_reference": 25.093803, "distance_from_trend": 0.037053, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.358327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048787, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.42101, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0538, "excess_performance": -0.133653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048787, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004045, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09641, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788043, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206919, "relative_activity": 0.580475, "balance": 0.788043, "dry_up": 1.01798, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058964, "annualized_volatility": 0.328272, "from_high_reference": -0.264395, "from_low_reference": 0.178605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.093803, "fair_value_reference": 27.358327, "structural_low": 22.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.008671, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.008344, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.101568, "worst_return": -0.129195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014905, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061317, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.162597, "worst_return": -0.280197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001826, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.193784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197707, "worst_return": -0.262901, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056245, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", 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"volume": 327065, "typical_volume": 414444.5, "trend": 25.539973, "fair_value": 27.308758, "relative_strength": -21.000586, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.499512, "energy": 11.152335, "activity_lines": [ 25.34082, 25.083188, 24.973157, 24.977971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.0351, "volume": 673231, "typical_volume": 411805.45, "trend": 25.370713, "fair_value": 27.316249, "relative_strength": -19.57327, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.310332, "energy": 7.604544, "activity_lines": [ 25.270532, 25.093061, 25.000498, 24.945399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.57, "volume": 244282, "typical_volume": 377161.6, "trend": 25.24035, "fair_value": 27.333873, "relative_strength": -17.534255, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.655949, "energy": 21.608132, "activity_lines": [ 25.37136, 25.196051, 25.079424, 24.958256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.0236, "volume": 206919, "typical_volume": 356464.85, "trend": 25.093803, "fair_value": 27.358327, "relative_strength": -19.42101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.04809, "energy": 25.356672, "activity_lines": [ 25.575887, 25.367055, 25.194931, 25.008788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }