{ "ticker": { "uuid": "745ec36f-4a5e-4cee-8afa-dec4d02aa580", "symbol": "SUAP", "name": "iShares MSCI USA SRI UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.025, "architecture_energy": 48.094, "architecture_maturity": 64.055, "architecture_confidence": 73.937, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.92, "rotation_up": 44.14, "upward_expansion": 69.34, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 19.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.724633, 7.732632, 7.637084, 7.467927 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.92, "trend_reference": 7.278147, "distance_from_trend": 0.088189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.17896, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281769, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.967122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133696, "excess_performance": 0.082461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046814, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281769, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039671, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636423, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17507, "relative_activity": 0.576608, "balance": 0.636423, "dry_up": 0.619836, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02063, "annualized_volatility": 0.132509, "from_high_reference": -0.001513, "from_low_reference": 0.237406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.278147, "fair_value_reference": 6.17896, "structural_low": 6.447, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016275, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.010752, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.055281, "worst_return": -0.052392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028437, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.02101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082974, "worst_return": -0.12042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104126, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172938, "worst_return": 0.046891, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.123287, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143857, "worst_return": 0.102716, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.079124, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001194, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143196, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029302, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025771, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05559, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"relative_strength": 1.516604, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.469366, "energy": 53.298318, "activity_lines": [ 7.6993, 7.713083, 7.564607, 7.401324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.582, "volume": 2217, "typical_volume": 31068.0, "trend": 7.247663, "fair_value": 6.161089, "relative_strength": -0.11792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.816868, "energy": 39.064761, "activity_lines": [ 7.650467, 7.692135, 7.586848, 7.424551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.92, "volume": 17507, "typical_volume": 30362.05, "trend": 7.278147, "fair_value": 6.17896, "relative_strength": 3.967122, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.025087, "energy": 48.094291, "activity_lines": [ 7.724633, 7.732632, 7.637084, 7.467927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }