{ "ticker": { "uuid": "746391b7-1276-4ca3-9e49-9c11c2ad33f6", "symbol": "XLYS", "name": "Invesco Consumer Discretionary S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.667, "architecture_energy": 15.097, "architecture_maturity": 26.152, "architecture_confidence": 48.811, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.17, "rotation_up": 19.89, "upward_expansion": 15.36, "deceleration": 44.38, "rotation_down": 41.54, "downward_expansion": 65.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 825.326672, 826.194553, 829.941915, 828.278505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 853.900024, "trend_reference": 831.536676, "distance_from_trend": 0.026894, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 722.433978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.947879, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019582, "excess_performance": -0.063301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026894, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007942, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039398, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019582, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.584192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112, "relative_activity": 0.214006, "balance": 1.584192, "dry_up": 0.338206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029944, "annualized_volatility": 0.216251, "from_high_reference": -0.036665, "from_low_reference": 0.121045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 831.536676, "fair_value_reference": 722.433978, "structural_low": 761.700012, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035833, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.057973, "worst_return": -0.065197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016773, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183197, "worst_return": -0.092954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.151466, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.115664, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.22299, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04473, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055592, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034832, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020174, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.901085, "energy": 4.766494, "activity_lines": [ 833.56001, 832.889102, 831.719536, 831.472484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 783.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 572.6, "trend": 833.773342, "fair_value": 719.282696, "relative_strength": -14.761811, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.39162, "energy": 50.055781, "activity_lines": [ 816.660006, 823.638191, 827.688582, 828.010548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 816.299988, "volume": 149, "typical_volume": 572.45, "trend": 832.273342, "fair_value": 720.696799, "relative_strength": -11.001396, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.120469, "energy": 43.580915, "activity_lines": [ 814.406665, 821.238187, 827.064771, 826.883235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 853.900024, "volume": 112, "typical_volume": 523.35, "trend": 831.536676, "fair_value": 722.433978, "relative_strength": -7.947879, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.66683, "energy": 15.097248, "activity_lines": [ 825.326672, 826.194553, 829.941915, 828.278505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }